The Next season of presentation of results of the Second quarter should provide investors Key information on how companies They are adapting to the wide agenda Tariff of the president of USA, Donald Trumpaccording to analysts of Goldman Sachs.
It should be noted that, Between July 11 and August 1, 73% of the companies of the S&P 500 will announce their results.
Thus, economists suggested that Trump’s high tariffs could rekindle inflationary pressures decreasing and weigh on economic activity in general. However, recent data indicated that, although the confidence and spending of consumers weakened in recent months, Inflation remained in moderate general and the labor market was resistant.
Even so, some strategists predicted that Tariffs could have a delayed effect and begin to appear in the economic figures later this year.
Meanwhile, there is some uncertainty about Trump’s tariff policies. In particular, He did not say if he will extend a pause to his punitive “reciprocal” tariffs about most countries that he expires at the beginning of next monthalthough White House officials have said such extension is an option.
Even discarding reciprocal levies, The effective US tariff rate increased from Trump’s possession in January to 13%said Goldman analysts, adding that their economists believe that it will eventually increase by four additional percentage points to 17%.
The risks of Trump’s tariff policies
If the companies were forced to absorb these higher costs, it would represent a downward risk for the margins, while Consumers would have to absorb 70% of direct expensessaid the broker. However, they stressed that some business surveys show lower transfer costs, and The May inflation report showed a “limited tariff footprint.”
Besides, High tariffs still did not weigh on sales forecasts or corporate spending expectations at the aggregate of the index levelanalysts said.
In this context, they predict that The interannual growth of the benefit per share in the companies of the reference index S&P 500 “will decelerate up to just 4% in the second quarter”compared to 12% of the previous three months.
For the whole year, Goldman projected that S&P 500 action will grow by 7%But he said that there are “risks” around his margin forecast for an expansion of 35 basic points up to 11.9%.
“Consensus estimates show that the margins contract sequentially, which explains the deceleration in the growth of corporate benefits. We hope that the S&P 500 together will exceed this low expectation,” they wrote.
Source: Ambito
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