At the beginning of the second semester of the year analysts think about the future of the Argentine economy in the midst of a complex situation in the economic and expectant in the political before the next mid -term elections that will be held in October.
A mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) ended last week the first review of the Credit Agreement granted to the country for US $20 billion.
“We consider that in the current situation, Argentina must generate recurrent current surpluses to demonstrate payment capacity,” said Vatnet Financial Research.
“The situation as the leap in services deficit demonstrates the exchange lag. The largest proportion of tourism is to neighboring countries, indicating average sectors that try to take advantage of the price of contribution while lasting to buy cheap,” he said.
“Without alterations on the road, calm continues in the Wholesale dollar -There for financial references around 1200 pesos- while the field settlements follow at a very good rhythm before rearrangement in the end of the month, “said economist Gustavo Ber.
“Before the Expectation of a lower currency income from mid -Julythe attention of the operators regarding the economic and financial strategies of the authorities to activate a greater offer and continue accumulating reservations, “he added.
“The youngest monetary emission and exchange unification They cut the gap between official and financial dollar to single -digit levels, favoring business planning, “said Delphos Investment.
“In terms of rates, liquidity issues in pesos added to some seasonal factors continue to drive real rates, while the market is preparing for the end of the Lefis,” said the SBS group.
“The foundations of the Argentine economy improve. To the consolidation of fiscal discipline is added the flexibility of much of the restrictions of the gear market and a monetary scheme with aggregate goals,” said a BBVA Research report.
“The new agreement with the IMF decreases uncertainties with respect to the solvency of the national treasure,” he said and predicted a growth of the internal gross product of 5.5% in 2025, “he predicted.
“The market projects greater exchange pressure in the second half of the year. Aspects such as the Aguinaldo, end of the thick harvest, return of the withholdings to previous levels, elections in October, press in this regard, “said Wise Capital.
“In fact, the government itself intervenes in the price of the currency through the futures market,” he said.
“The value for the expected inflation for the next 12 months in June is 38.5% according to the average and 30% according to the median. It is the lowest value since March 2020,” said Sebastián Augusto, director of the Finance Research Center of the Torcuato Di Tella University.
“In May the industry managed to write down a new advance, in this case 1.0%. Anyway, it is worth mentioning that the March data was corrected downward, and that the April and May rebound is not enough to recover the previous level,” said a report by Orlando Ferreres & Associates.
“In any case, sector heterogeneity leads to the fact that the industry data in general is not very representative of the reality of each item,” he explained.
“While in many economies small and medium enterprises invest and are financed in the capital market with total naturalness, here the majority continues to depend exclusively on the banking system or leaving their capital immobilized in accounts that do not generate performance,” said Enrique Chimeno de Iol.
Source: Ambito
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