Companies must face a more hostile credit environment between 2025 and 2026 Due to the lack of liquidity and the delay of the exchange rate, it reveals a report The Moody’s Risk Qualifier. The report warns that recent breaches of some companies increased the risks of refinancing.
One of the aspects that plays against Argentine companies is the fall of the exchange gap for 2024, because it exhausted the possibility of obtaining financing through the capital market through “Dollar-Linked” emissions that was sued by investors as change coverage.
The qualifier points out that “for the next 12-18 months we expect a very low depth in the Dollar-Linked segment In addition to a considerable rise in the cost of financing, online to what happened in 2024, and more pronounced product of recent breach events ”.
In this regard, it is mentioned that “this new scenario is lower refinancing alternatives for issuing with a high level of maturities of promissory notes and negotiable obligations Dollar-Linked, to a higher cost both in hard-doll and in pesos ”.
“An increase in funding by the banking sector, added to greater access to hard-doll market in the external market could dwell the fall in financing alternatives and improve the liquidity of companies,” says Moody
In that sense, the report indicates that “before a scenario DE lower expected inflation and greater exchange rate stability, the real rate in pesos begins to position itself at positive levels and could press the coverage of interest and the generation of operating cash flows. ”
“We hope to 2025 and 2026 A higher cost of refinancing for emitters with grades in range A.ar and lower that, in the absence of the Dollar-Linked market, they will face a Most selective demand by investors for high-doll placements, whose preference focuses on Credit quality emitters AA– or superior, ”explains the report.
Those who will win and those who will lose
According to Moody’s the companies of public services and utilities will be among the most benefited in the coming months because they will have rates increases.
“We hope the Regulated companies (public services) and the telecommunications sector improve their credit metrics in 2025-26, ”says the report
In that sense, it is pointed out that the signatures of the segment “will improve their credit profile due to the I recover from their profitability margins for tariff increases already granted the greatest predictability of their flow of funds by the new Quinquenal Tariff (RQT) resolution ”.
“On the other hand, we hope that companies in the sector of Telecommunications continue to improve the average income per user (ARPU) and therefore its profitability margins in a context of decreasing inflation and greater stability of the exchange rate, ”says the analysis of the rating.
In that sense, the study waiting for 2025 “A decrease in leverage levels and an improvement in the sector’s coverageassociated with a greater generation of operating cash flows in dollars. ”
On the contrary, Moody’s warns that LThe local manufacturing sectors and conventional hydrocarbon extraction “will be the most affected in the next 12 to 18 months.”
“The lowest multilateral exchange rate, together with an MAyor level of opening of the economy and the lower exchange gap, raise the operational costs of companies and It decreases considerably the operational margins of the manufacturing sector due to its lower pricing capacity for the highest degree of competition, ”explained the consultant.
On the other hand, he mentions that “the sector of Conventional hydrocarbon extraction, will present greater financing needs of its operations due to the increase in operational costs andn a context of lower international crude prices and a higher local financial cost, deriving in greater leverage and lower interest coverage of the sector ”.
For the rest of the sectors, the qualifier considers that there will be a heterogeneous impact. For example, for companies Muerta Vaca can face low oil prices but that will be compensated for a lower cost of production and greater transport capacity.
Instead, it indicates that the Electronics and consumption can be affected because they could not recover profitability via prices in the coming months.
Source: Ambito
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