While it was foreseeable that the market panderer MSCI I kept Argentina in your current status of “standalone”the truth is that the City was surprised at decision not to include the country even in the market list with potential to be reclassified as “border” or “emerging”. In this way, local investors must continue waiting to see any possibility concrete change in classification.
“Despite the reforms implemented in April 2025 -including the adoption of a man of administered floating exchange, The elimination of restrictions for the purchase of dollars and transfers abroad by residents, and the authorization for foreign companies and investors to transfer dividends and investment profits under certain conditions- MSCI determined that key limitations still persist for foreign investors“They stressed from Max Capital.
As a reference, it is important to remember that The country had been included in the “emerging” market index in 2019after The elimination of capital controls in 2016 during the administration of Mauricio Macri, but was degraded again in 2021 to the current “standalone” category. On this occasion, although reclassification was almost discarded, If the country was expected to enter the review list by 2026, at least to climb a step towards “border market”.
Argentina shares the category “Standalone” With other countries such as Jamaica, Panama, Trinidad and Tobago, Bulgaria, Palestine and Ukraine. This classification implies that Argentine actions evaluated by the MSCI are not included in emerging or border market rates, which limits the investment of international funds that seek to replicate these indices.
This was highlighted this Wednesday Outlier: “It is not a surprise that is not considered for an emerging market, after the appreciations that were known last Friday by MSCI. What we believe was not contemplated is that the passage to border is not even in consideration. ” Now, we will have to wait and just Argentina could be reclassified in 2027. “Except for some exception, Argentina could only be included in the observation list in June 2026, and in case the process advances, be reclassified in June 2027 “he explained Aurum values After knowing the MSCI decision.
“There was some expectation in the market for a potential reclassification After exchange flexibility and the agreement with the IMF in April, but finally it did not happen, “said Grupo SBS.
How this decision of the MSCI impacts on the actions of the S&P Merval
For the economist Gustavo Ber, “The MSCI effect” did not activate an important correctionbut, on the contrary, “barely modest descents”, which could reflect that, in the background, Operators’ appetite is still sustained.
“It happens that investors continue to assess the important macro progress, beyond the growing of micro attention in view of sectoral dispersions in the activity, The determined reform agenda and a political scenario that still looks favorable for the ruling road to the next electoral scales of September and October “broad.
In talk with Scope, The analyst Leonardo Anzalone said that “MSCI’s decision to keep Argentina as a “standalone” did not generate a relevant impact on shares because it was something that was already discounted by investors. He did not surprise, and in that sense, he did not change the stage. Today there are other factors that weigh much more in market behavior. “
For the expert, what is marking The rhythm is the consolidation of the economic program, the post-cepo exchange scheme, the evolution of interest rates in pesos and tax expectations. In addition, “an eventual improvement in market classification will not move prices alone if it is not accompanied with more fluid access to external financing,” he added.
In summary, Market attention is put in the consistency of the economic course and how that is reflected in public accounts, reserves and exchange rate. “That is what will determine if Argentine assets have room to continue recovering land,” Anzalone explained.
In turn, Rafael Di Giorno of Professionstressed that the day after the decision “This is a day of little volume. In which the ADRs fall but does it to a lesser extent. It is not so serious especially after an important rise yesterday.”
Source: Ambito
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