How much should the dollar be worth, according to Rodolfo Santángelo?

The economist Rodolfo Santángelodirector of the consultant Macroview And one of the most listened to referents in the local financial circle, again generated noise in the markets with a forceful statement about the official exchange rate. According to the analyst, the dollar to $ 1,200 is a problem For the government of Javier Milei and considered that, with a slightly superior value, the economic situation would be much more favorable.

“The dollar at $ 1,200 is a problem. At $ 1,400, we would be Gardel”, Santángelo launched, and analyzed the current exchange scheme, the fragility of the Central Bank reserves and the structural weakness faced by Argentina.

Why does the dollar to $ 1,200 not reach?

The current official exchange rate, around $ 1,215 per dollarremains relatively stable thanks to the government’s strategy to apply a CRAWLING PEG of 2% monthly. However, for Santángelo this level is not competitive given the current conditions of the economy:

In this context, the current exchange rate generates exchange delaythat is, a loss of competitiveness for exporters, which in the medium term could translate into a loss of economic dynamism and pressures on the financial market.

Dollar at $ 1,400: the equilibrium projection

For Santángelo, the equilibrium value of the dollar is not $ 2000 – level that he considered “a detach” – but could be around the $ 1400a threshold that would allow to rebuild competitiveness without causing an inflation trigger.

Rodolfo Santangelo

“The price of the dollar should arise from a ‘Price Discovery’ process, a cleaner prices discovery and not manipulated by state interventions,” he explained. In that sense, the economist suggested that the Government should take advantage of the fiscal surplus to buy dollars and strengthen reservations, instead of using those funds for other items.

“You need US $ 9,000 million a year only to pay interest in the debt. That is the size of the fiscal surplus, and its logical destination should be accumulate reservationsdon’t cover holes, ”he warned.

Country risk, debt and trust: the limits of the model

According to the director of Macroview, the current fiscal scheme has clear limitations: “The fiscal surplus is a necessary, but not sufficient condition to lower the country risk”, He said. He added that the real background problem in Argentina is“ the Lack of reservations and a financial system disconnected from the international market. ”

While the market celebrates certain fiscal discipline signals, investors still distrust the country’s financial future: “Argentina has a Structural debt problem in dollars and distrust of the creditors. It is not enough with the fiscal adjustment if there is no accumulation of currencies and a credible credible program, ”he said.

The tip: go buy dollars now

One of the most concrete recommendations of the economist was clear: The Government must go to repurchase dollars as soon as possible To avoid future tensions. According to Santángelo, that would be the way to reduce the country risk, prepare the ground for an orderly output of the stocks and avoid exchange shocks.

“The Argentine history shows that, if you do not accumulate reservations when you can, then pay it expensive. If you keep selling cheap dollars for longer than necessary, you run out of gasoline,” he summarized.

The statements of Santángelo, during an interview on the channel Now playshow the Internal tensions of the Milei Economic Plan: While the government holds a still dollar policy to avoid a new inflationary spiralization, Analysts warn that a new exchange delay is incubatingsimilar to that which resulted in previous crises.

The question that is floating is yes The Government may continue to support the current exchange rate Without a new correction, and if the US $ 1400 suggested by Santángelo is a warning, a recommendation … or a premonition.