With the end of the temporary reduction in the aliquots, a lower liquidation is expected in July, although some analysts warn that there is still unprocessed that they could sustain the entry of currencies.
He Monday It was the last day the exporters To record the Sworn statements of sales abroad (Djve) paying lower retentions aliquots. And while there are projections that argue that, in order to that temporary benefit The liquidation would fall with respect to what was June (Companies in the agroindustrial sector liquidated US $ 3,706 million). Other analysis argue that you have to focus on analyzing the DJVE that were not yet prosecuted.
What happens is that between Thursday, Friday and Monday Exporters filed statements for the equivalent AU $ S2.7 billionthey reported from the consulting firm 1816, indicating that If the last twelve business days are counted, the DJVE added US $ 6,500 million. “It is an unpublished amount for a similar period, with the exception that this happened in September 2022when Massa assumed as Economy Minister of Alberto Fernández and launched the “Soya dollar,” they explained from the consultant. It should be noted that In that September, the Agro settled more than US $ 8,000 million in a single month.
For its part from PPI They also contributed information in this regard: “Since Tuesday 10.10 million tons were recorded, a figure that contrasts bluntly with 2.16 million tons noted in the previous four wheels. In particular, on Friday I marked a record with 3.77 million tons registered in a single day. This is the largest record since May 9, 2022, in which 5.10 million tons was marked. ”
According to the calculation that this same broker made, in monetary terms, The DJVE accumulated in the last fifteen sessions equals an estimated US $ 6,083 million, taking as reference the prices of Chicago bag. This figure is located well above the effective liquidation of the sector in the same period, about US $ 2,737 million. But a very striking point to mention is that in the last four days, while The DJVE reached a liquidation proxy of US $ 3,040 million, effective liquidation in the Mulc was US $ 717 million.
How much would the Liquidation of Agro be in July
If it is taken into account that in June the DJVE added the equivalent au $ S8.150 millionfrom the consulting firm 1816 they calculated that If agriculture wants to benefit from low withholdings, it should settle around US $ 4,550 million in the first 3 weeks of July (Taking as a reference that the effective liquidation of June outside US $ 3,600 million).
However, this figure was a bit higher. The Chamber of the Oil Industry (Ciara) and the Cereal Exporters Center (CEC) reported on the previous day that The companies of the agroindustrial sector liquidated US $ 3,706 millionwhich represents a year -on -year increase of 87% with respect to the same month of 2024 and a growth of the 21% compared to May.
So, Mariela Brandolinconsultant in FINANCIAL GRANE AND INVESTMENT MARKETin talk with this media, he reviewed what happened last month: “June was a month of great liquidation by the field. On the one hand, Agroexporters have made great DJVE presentations to take advantage of the dex (retentions) with reduced aliquots. This generated favorable impact on the entry of currencies and consequently maintained pressure on the dollar. Remember that to access reduced aliquots, The exporter had to advance the currencies with a maximum period of up to 15 days once the DJVE has been presented (when normal is against embarkation) “.
As for the projections on what will come, it should be noted that they are quite dissimilar. Thus they explained their analysis in Wise Capital: “Today the cut in retentions to key products of the field ends, highlighting the soybeans, and this will have a direct impact on the level of currency income. Although it is projected that June will end with liquidations for US $ 3,000 million (it was US $ 700 million more), the panorama for July is very different. It is speculated with revenues for just US $ 400 million“
For its part, to Brandolini Julio will not run with the same fate of June since “with a low price, sales from the producer will not flow,” while other aspects could influence: “The exporter could face the month without too hard: he was already buying a significant amount in May and Juneand could stock up on the soy imported from Paraguay. In addition, most likely It is concentrated in corn, which is the next product to harvest in these weeks. In general accounts, this product could partially compensate, the lowest marketing of soybeans. “
Source: Ambito
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