The official dollar advanced $ 80 in a few days for expectations of lower liquidation, recommendations of JP Morgan about the end of the carry trade and electoral tensions, according to City analysts.
He Official dollar advanced $ 80 on the last wheels and The City already evaluates the causes of this new bullish rally. Is that there are several factors that are putting a extra pressure to the foreign currency ranging from reports that come from abroad such as the JP Morgan which evaluated that it is time to end the positions of “Carry Trade” so promoted in recent months, up to a lower liquidation by harvest and the Electoral noises in the face of mid -term elections in October.
Thus, at the moment the Wholesale dollar It is located in the $ 1,222 and if the last 8 wheels are counted, it already has an advance of $ 80 from the $ 1,142.5, at the moment it touches a new but nominal record. In that framework the Blue dollarfor its part, it is at the level of $ 1,245 with an increase of $ 45 in the same period of time. If we are going to the performance of financial exchange rates: the MEP It is located at $ 1,236.52 and the CCL in the $ 1240.85, with gaps that are currently only 0.4% and 0.7% compared to the officer’s dynamics.
In talk with ScopeEric Paniagua, partner of Dracma Venture Capital Consulting, explained that causes are behind this upward pressure: “I think there are various factors that are combined so that the second semester be challenging In terms exchange and to the same time inflationary With a certain correlation of Potential devaluation on inflation. First of all, There will be less dollars offered by the field for a seasonal issue “.
In this regard, it should be noted that on Monday the effective liquidation of agriculture was known during June. The Oil Industry Chamber (CIARA) and the Cereal Exporters Center (CEC) reported that The companies of the agroindustrial sector liquidated US $ 3,706 million. Now, to evaluate what could happen in July there are dissimilar positions, in the first place there is potentially U $ 4,000 million even without liquidating because from agric After that date if there is consensus in which a strong fall will be recorded.
Secondly, Paniagua said that The dynamics of the dollar had been lateralizingand that “that backwardness is contrasted with the evolution of other prices of the economy that, at some point it had to be normalized.” And, thirdly, he mentioned that “some comments from analysts about some reports that have been shared in networks belonging to The big investment banks of the United States did not help so that there is tranquilityon the contrary, I think the demand has been unleashed on that side. “
The last report made by the JP Morgan in which they advised disarmament in pesos to make rate in the event of an exchange rate rise. The alarms ignited precisely because last history weighs: This is the same International Bank that warned in April 2018 that the “Carry Trade” during the Mauricio Macri government was finished And that, weeks later, it led to a strong exchange crisis just when Economy was also in charge of Luis Caputo.
More causes that could be behind the dollar rise
From the broker PPIhighlighted in their latest report, that on Tuesday, the spot dollar jump 1.6% and hill at $ 1,124, Its highest value since the beginning of the new exchange scheme of bands that debuted on April 14. For them the dynamics responded to new factors: “Among them, it stands out The collection of the bonuswhich could be feeding the demand for dollars of the retail of Transitory and seasonal way. In turn, on Monday the Treasury tenderin which the rollover was just 58.9%, so We are in a context of greater liquidity that could have pressed the demand for dollars “.
“Beyond that in the coming weeks strong field settlements could arrivethe operators remain focused on the posterior exchange balance since the supply would be seasonally decreased and demand factors that could take more strength are being detected. From there the rearrangement of the wholesale dollar is extended, and before this is that it approaches $ 1,250 as well as the other references, although to the extent that said sliding Do not generate a transfer at prices – Since disinflation is an economic and political pillar – it could be convenient for Improve the dynamics of exchange appreciation “said the economist on this day, Gustavo Ber.
Source: Ambito
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