The survey of market expectations will announce on Friday its projections on the official dollar and inflation at a time where there will be a jump in the indices that the City looks most.
The survey of market expectations will announce on Friday its projections on the official dollar and inflation
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With the Official dollar above half of the band $ 1,225 and extra pressures that arrive due to exchange coverage to political noises is that the Friday The survey of market expectations (REM) will be known that the BCRA elaborates -which will give its projections of inflation, GDPand dollar facing the coming months.
As prelude, it is important to remember that on this day it was known that the Government published his first projections for the elaboration of the Budget 2026. Over there, He acknowledged that the value of the dollar will continue running behind inflationand predicted that the economy will continue to grow.
Through the “Advance report to the Honorable Congress of the Nation” on the general budget of the National Administration, the Executive Power estimated that the inflation will be 22.7% In 2025 and what The nominal exchange rate will increase 20.4% Annual, “resulting in an average decrease in the real bilateral exchange rate with the dollar of -8.6% in the year.”
Dollars
What did the City analysts say in the last REM
In the last report of the Rem which was published on June 5, who participated in the REM estimated that by December 2025 A nominal exchange rate of $ 1,300 which yields an expected year-on-year variation of 27.4% (-2.2 pp with respect to the previous REM).
In addition, in the fifth survey of the year, Those who participated in the REM also estimated a monthly inflation of 2.1% for May (According to INDEC it was 1.5%). For the following months they announced that they are expected Descending paths of monthly inflation for both general level and core component.
As for the unemployment rate, The set of participants awaits a 6.5% rate in the last quarter of 2025 (as in the previous REM). As for the expected annual commercial surplus, it is US $ 761 million (US $ 2,050 million less than the last REM).
The average top 10 forecasts a primary surplus of $ 14.2 billion. No participant expects primary deficit for this year.
Source: Ambito
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