The third quarter is not so good for the government say mesadinerists. They speak of economic activity, inflation and the couple that makes noise: the country risk and the exchange rate. Interesting conclusions after knowing the farewell of JP Morgan.
The technicians of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) were left and not only left a more pressure beam on the change market, but also turned a blind eye with the new playful of the “Toto” Caputo, the “Block Purchas Trade” or purchases in block of dollarswhose debut occurred, precisely, with the landing of the people in the background. The most purists, some mandriles, criticize that, since they are liberal why they do not buy via the change market instead of going, with opacity, offering there. The good thing is that they added reservations. Two hundred sticks, nothing more, but something is something.
As much as the ruling and several adláteres continue to argue that the reserves do not matter, the bonds do not think the same, and to speak after the JP Morgan kicked the “Carry Trade” board. It is the Achilles heel. The only thing you want to see the marketobvious, maintaining the fiscal anchor, and disinflation, is that the Central Bank (BCRA) and the Treasury, above all, the latter, buy reservations again, and gradually leave a stock of negative net reserves. On these issues, the meetings and dialogues among mesadinerists were around. All recalculating positions, not only in the “Carry” and looking sideways what happens outside.
Country risk and exchange rate: the couple that makes noise
In two almost simultaneous meetings, between consultants and players of the local market, they anticipated that The third quarter is not so good for the government, fundamentally, in terms of economic activity level. Even in one of these meetings, in full City Porteñ Be careful with inflation, because the next records may be closer to 2% than 1% so longed for, because there were seasonal factors that played in favor of low CPI. There is much talk about country risk and, obviously, the exchange rate. It is the couple that makes noise.
In this regard, in the other meeting the economist who illustrated the situation and perspectives to clients and colleagues, considered that $ 1,200 and 700 basic points is perhaps the worst combination that perhaps would be, for example, a dollar of $ 1,400 and 500 risk points. First, that siren song that the dollar was going to $ 1,000, vanished, there are no supply and demand factors in this free market. Second, in these pre-electoral months it is necessary to monitor if the dollar goes up and if the risk goes down, and what motivates the rise in the exchange rate because there is a big difference if it is motivated by government purchases with the surplus that flesh of capitals. That is why the last exchange balance, above all, the demand of people and imports, continues to generate stinging. Very commented on the debate on Piie among former IMF officials and the World Bank on the Argentine case and the new program. We will expand.
JP Morgan
Depositphotos
The farewell of JP Morgan and then
The active Research team of a local manager who continues to gain positions in the ranking Interesting conclusions for its institutional clients, above all, after knowing the farewell of JP Morgan. A brief synthesis would be that: to the investment of the peso curve now we must add the investment of the CER curve; where real -rate levels higher than the current ones do not contain the nominality via the incentive to have pesos, but rather because of the negative effect on the activity; The movement of short bonds also resembles what happens with interbank rates in real terms, where private tamar operates at approximately 10% of an annual effective rate. For example, Bonds such as Tzxo5 or TZXD5 have implicit monthly inflation, average, “1.5% monthly 1.5%. Long hill bonds will have their capital gain limited as long as they do not compress the hard dollar bonds, as well as because the real exchange rate implicit in the arbitration of the curves is not the one that an economy as Argentina requires.
And not for the approval of the economic team, these analysts believe that with these real short -term rates There is no “anker point” (investment effect) that endures. They point out that when the Lefi end up eliminating (there are still $ 8.3 billion, of which $ 3.6 billion are private) will have a better context that it will happen to weight rates, but as they have maintained this it should generate a greater demand for letters and bonds in pesos. We will see.
In another financial bunker, in addition to trying to unravel what was about Cubría’s Judge Servini with respect to Cristina, they divered on the YPF-Preska theme. According to their calculations, the stock of total global sovereign bonds in private hands is around US $ 60,000 million (more than 80,000 million adding the bonars and up to 90,000 million with the Bopreal). Therefore, it is not the same if you have to issue US $ 2,000 million, US $ 5,000 million OU $ 10,000 million to settle the YPF trial. The 1816 people believe that the Government will not pay US $ 16,000 million, nor will it deliver the shares, but it will accelerate the times of the negotiation and, therefore, a future debt issuance. On the next debt tender, in which the BCRA will stop operating Lefi (stock of $ 12.7 billion) They project a migration to LECAP for a month. At the moment there seems to be no appetite for Bontes now, although the dual bonds in Tamar +500 points look attractive.
Source: Ambito
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