The provincial legislative elections will work as a political test in the most influential district in the country, while analysts project an increasingly remote exchange rate from the official government goals.
While the dollar It continues in the center of the scene for its recent increases, the last survey of market expectations (REM), released this Friday, reflected the projections of analysts for the coming months.
The second semester is emerging as a key period for two reasons: on the one hand, the Legislative election in the province of Buenos Airesit will be a decisive moment to measure the opposition’s ability to sustain its weight in one of the most relevant districts in the country. On the other, the election will be given in a context of weakened consumption and growing uncertainty around official exchange ratewhich continues to mark the economic pulse and conditioning social expectations, acting as a kind of “approval test” of the government of Javier Milei.
In this sense, Buenos Aires will choose on September 7, 23 provincial senators and 15 alternatesas well as 46 provincial deputies and 28 alternates. According to him Survey of market expectations (REM) Posted by the Central Bank, Analysts project an official dollar of $ 1,249 for Septemberjust in the month of the Buenos Aires election, and of $ 1,272 for Octoberwhen the national legislative elections will take place, provided for Sunday 26.
In those national elections, Argentines will choose 127 national deputies and 24 senatorsthus completing the partial renewal of the Congress planned by 2025.
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Dollar and elections: disparate projections between analysts and government
The data is not less: the evolution of the dollar and its impact on prices and economic expectations usually has weight in the spirit of the electorate. The REM estimates that the official exchange rate December will close at $ 1,324which represents a year -on -year variation of 29.7%surpassing in 9.3 percentage points The National Government Guideline for the 2026 Budget, which provides for a dollar to $ 1,229 and a rise of 20.4% annual.
This difference in projections reflects the Decount between official goals and the perception of markets in recent months.
Recall that, in mid -April, the Government announced a flexibility of the stocks and a new flotation exchange scheme, with an initial floor of $ 1,000 and a roof of $ 1,400, together with a monthly update of 1% of those values (below in the case of the lower level and up in the case of the band’s cap).
Source: Ambito
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