The last weeks left a clear signal in the local market: The weight was under pressure again And investors demanded More rate to stay in local currency, Instead of taking refuge in dollars. This behavior reflected an increase in the perception of exchange risk, which promoted a rise in yields, to the point that last Monday the real rates came to touch 16%. However, towards the closing of the week, that pressure was moderated and the rates began to decompress.
This movement realized the Volatility in the peso curve During the last weeks, driven by structural changes in the monetary scheme, such as the elimination of the Lefi that will be effective this week.
“These days the electoral uncertainty and the ruling by YPF, together with the appreciated FX led to the demand for dollars growing to the detriment of the middle/length of the pesos curve. We will have to see at what extent the returns become attractive enough for the market to stop looking at the dollar And, in addition, a large amount of agricultural exports liquidations that were declared to end the temporary reduction in the DEX for soybeans, corn and sunflower, “said Andrés Reschini, of F2 Financial solutions, in dialogue with scope, in dialogue with scope.
Hold the “Carry Trade”
According to Reschini, the key that the yields are maintained has a double objective: 1) Contribute to the slowdown in the nominality of the economy. 2) Sustain the attractiveness of the “Carry Trade” as a tool to preserve exchange calm, and facilitate, at the same time, the entry of foreign exchange through financial roads.
It should be noted that during the first semester, the “Carry Trade” positioned itself as the winning strategy, although its sustainability in the second half of the year is in doubt. The demand for dollars accelerated driven by the collection of the bonus and by a lower incentive to stay in pesos. Everything indicates that the second semester will be more challenging in the exchange front, in a context marked by electoral uncertainty and a lower seasonal currency offer.
The bid of June 25 was a turning point: the treasure achieved just one 58.8% rollover of its maturities and was forced to validate rates above marketreaching 2.88% are in the short section. This result reflected two clear signals: Weeds left without absorbing in the market and Investors prioritize short -term placements demanding greater rates to compensate for exchange risk.
“The cousin who ask you for coverage in the face of a weight drop to make the ‘carry trade’ is affecting the interest rate. The more risk there are that these weights cannot be converted into dollars, the greater the interest rate they will ask. That is the main function of the rate in this case,” explained the economist the economist Joel Lupieri.
He added: “It will depend on more dollar offer and tranquility returns, the interest rate will also go down.” However, he warned that maintain positive real yields in instruments in pesos It is key to hold the “carry trace” and prevent the demand from moving to the dollar.
In parallel, the exchange rate resumed prominence. Both the official and financial dollar They rose again in recent daysreinforcing the trend seen in June, when the exchange rate increased $ 35 (3%) in the month. This context raises the perception of exchange risk and holds the pressure on the rates.
Key week for the world pesos
In this scenario, The Government convened a new tender on Mondaywhose liquidation is scheduled for July 10, when the Central Bank will stop operating the Lefi. The instrument menu offered includes letters and bonds in pesos and dollars, with emphasis on very short -term letters, such as the S15G5, expiring on August 15, and the S12S5, which expires in September.
From Grupo SBS they stressed that the elimination of the Lefi will be a key factor to follow, not only for the possible transfer of banking funds from Lefi to short Lecaps, but also for its impact on the liquidity of the financial system and in an eventual increase in real rates.
Source: Ambito
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