The government will agree with the IMF and could lower the rate in pesos, with a more demanded dollar and a probable rise in soybeans. This is commented by financial analyst Salvador Di Stéfano, in an opinion column, in which he added that banks will no longer have liquidity letters, which will lead to a search for new financial instruments for about $ 10 billion, possibly reducing interest rates. The bond rate is close to 25% per year and the fixed term around 32%, but it is expected to fall. Long bonds in pesos, especially dual boncap, are attractive, paying more than 40% per year.
The government offers bonds in pesos that adjust per wholesale dollar, a good option for those who bet on a dollar rise. The TZVD5 Bonus, which expires in December 2025, offers an additional 6.4%. Although the wholesale dollar and the MEP are aligned, a limited increase of the dollar is expected. The field faces a complex scenario, with high expenses of structure and need to sell production. The rise in prices of soybeans and wheat in Chicago could presage a bullish rally, benefiting the Argentine economy.
On July 9, sovereign bonds are paid in dollars, a good time to reinvest. However, new US tariffs could bring volatility. Political instability in Congress and the bid between government and governors generate economic uncertainty. Julio is presented as a challenging month with monetary changes, dollar volatility and a changing international scenario.
The government will agree on the goals with the IMF, could lower the rate in pesos, we see a more demanded dollar, probable rise in soybeans and pay the bonds.
We are in times of very important monetary changes, the banks will no longer have fiscal liquidity letters to alocate the remnant of weights of the daily operation, with which about $ 10 billion must seek destiny in other financial instruments, and this could place the interest rate in values lower than the current ones.
The bond rate is already at levels below 30% per year, quoting around the annual 25%, and with a downward trend. Today the LECAP yields 30% per year, and what is still at high levels is the fixed term rate that is around 32% per year, but we will soon see it down.
With this scenario ahead, position yourself in long bonds in pesos looks attractive, especially in dual boncap that expire during the year 2026 and adjust rate taking as a reference the fixed term rate for values greater than $ 1 billion. Today they pay more than 40% per year.
The government faces a new peso tender, goes out to offer bonds in pesos that adjust per wholesale dollar, a good option for those who want to bet on a dollar rise, and win an additional rate. The TZVD5 bonus is a bonus in pesos that adjusts by wholesale dollar (in financial jargon it is called the dollar Linked) expires on December 15 of the year 2025 and pays you what the dollar linked is worth its maturity, you buy it under the torque and it gives you an additional 6.4%. Today we have the quotes of the wholesale dollar and financial dollar very aligned, which is a fabulous option for those who want to collect dollars. For example, today the wholesale dollar is worth $ 1,230 and the MEP dollar is worth $ 1,238. As you will see, it makes sense to buy dollars tickets, with this bonus copies the evolution of the dollar and desire an additional 6%.
The dollar is in the gaze of the economic agents, from our point of view the rise will be limited, today many field men who sold soybeans to take advantage of the transitory decline of export rights are the same ones that are buying dollars as a value shelter. In 60 days the corn must be sown, and the money will have to appear to face the campaign, as you do not live in the air, you will have to sell grains again or liquidate the dollars bought.
That romantic euphemism that the field does not sell a grain until the end of the year is only romanticism, the field scenario is very complex, there are no great utilities, and structure expenses are very high, no one can live without selling production, otherwise they would be all millionaires. Sometimes with many statements seriousness is lost.
We are not worried about the transient rise of the dollar, there is political noise in the relationship between government and governors, on the other hand, the dollar at the international level is devaluing, we have long recommended euros, today the peso gains competitiveness, the real one in 5.40 and appreciating help Argentina have a strong peso.
The good news for Argentina is that the price of soybeans and wheat in Chicago exceeds the price of the last 10 weeks, and this could presage a bullish rally for these products, we do not doubt that it could infect the corn that has good foundations. We are very difficult for oil to be infected, which we only see an interesting rise if it exceeds the value of US $ 70. Livestock is in record prices in Chicago, and opens the doors of more income of dollars to Argentina. For those who are concerned about the commercial balance, care that the second semester can be a surprise for many. I would not bet on a dollar rise with this data in the hand.
Conclusion
. – On July 9, sovereign bonds are paid in dollars, good time to reinvest these bonds waiting for a country risk. Green light to repurchase bonds.
. – Yellow lights, from July 9 the new tariffs of the United States arrive and this can bring volatility in the markets. Care, use short or handle with high light, we can have setbacks.
. – Red light in the political, Congress is a source of economic instability, many projects that seek to twist the arm to the Executive Power, increasing expenses that are not financing. This bid does not suit the country, they should reach an agreement, but I want to emphasize that the National Government adjusts, while the governors waste money, do not lower taxes, and continue along the easy way not to pay the political cost, when they are part of the problem and not of the solution. It seems a lie that they still charge taxes to gross income to bank loans, and say they do it to support production, as if they did not know that who mostly takes financing is production. Any qualifiers leave it at your discretion.
. – The month of July looks challenging, monetary changes, volatile dollar, changing international scenario, and the approval of the trimester goals with June with the IMF is coming, if everything goes well would arrive shortly US $ 2 billion. Many dollars in the hands of the BCRA to think that the dollar will be a head dollar for this economy.
Source: Ambito
I am a 24-year-old writer and journalist who has been working in the news industry for the past two years. I write primarily about market news, so if you’re looking for insights into what’s going on in the stock market or economic indicators, you’ve come to the right place. I also dabble in writing articles on lifestyle trends and pop culture news.
