While in the last June wheels they jumped Affidavit statements abroad (DJVE) by the end of the transitory decline of retentions to agriculture, which implied that In the first days of July, US $ 1,500 million were settled, the highest level since the beginning of June 2023the foreign currency suffers a strong demand, which implies a renewed appreciation of the weight. After that, several causes are hidden from the Collection of the bonus, tourism, movements of exporters and purchasing of the treasure to accumulate reservations.
It should be noted that last week the official dollar maintained the bullish pressure, rose 4.2% in the last 5 days, and closed on Friday at $ 1,239.83, which implies that it exceeded The center of the exchange band on consecutive days for the first time since the stocks were flexible. “This dynamic occurred despite a strong liquidation of the agriculture, which reached US $ 1,565 million in the same period, suggesting that the demand remained high. A possible explanation is the impact of the collection of bonuses on retail demand “they explained from Cohen.
In that framework, from this same broker, to explain this dynamic, they stood out that Private deposits in dollars increased US $ 343 million between June 29 and July 1 but they also mentioned that there were greater portfolio dollarization by companies. In turn, it is important to highlight that in the first days of the month, the average exchange rate was 3.7% above the average of June. Financial dollars accompanied the movement: the MEP rose 4.3% and CCL 3.5%, closing at $ 1,246.3 and $ 1,245.4, respectively.
In line with the rebound of exchange rates, The dollar futures closed the week with marked increases of 3.8%. The highest adjustment was given in the May 2026 contract, which advanced 4%, while the shortest sections rose on average 3.6%. “With this, The implicit monthly devaluation is located at 2.6% monthly for July2.4% monthly until December and 2.1% in the longest deadlines, “expanded from Cohen. In this need for coverage demand, the week was also favorable for the debt segment in pesosso he looks at the market once again positioned himself in the Dollar-Linked bonds.
The four variables that press the dollar
From ADCAP Financial Groupa report made by Federico Filippini (Heaf of Research & Strategy) and Javier Casabal (Mr. Fixed Incom Strategy), argues that there are at least four variables that they put an extra pressure to the foreign currency despite the record liquidation of the field that is expected in the first three weeks of July: renewed accumulations of dollars by retailers, exporters covering themselves, tourists, and “silent” purchases from the treasure.
On the first point, from ADCAPhighlighted that seasonal export income coincided with The payment of the middle of the yearwhich injected approximately $ 5.7 billion (around US $ 4,700 million) into the economy. “Although probably only a fraction of that amount has been dollarized, The huge volume of pesos in circulation – amplified by Treasury liquidity injections in mid -June— I could have overcome the currency offer. This is consistent with the strong fall in Overnight rates, which now negotiates 10 percentage points below the average last week, which indicates an excess of liquidity, “they said.
Another of the points that stand out in numerous reports is The pressure of the emissive tourism in months where it does not usually have large volumes. To the convenience for an appreciated weight, the participation of two Argentine teams in the Club World Cup was added. “Preliminary data suggest an anticipated increase in trips abroad, since Argentine Veraneantes take advantage of seasonal windows to spend outside the country. The high frequency indicators point to an acceleration of the fastest tourist demand, in line with previous years in which the emissive tourism exerted seasonal pressure on the exchange market “they explained from ADCAP.
The third central point could be exporters acquiring currencies, although for these experts, it is “a more curious but increasingly plausible explanation” is that Agroexporters themselves are acting as dollars buyers, repurchanging part of the flows they just sell“. As detailed from this report, Having sold dollars at the official exchange rate to ensure tax benefits, exporters now have important balances in pesos.
“With supplies payments for the next sowing season approaching later this year, Some could be covering in the parallel market or using futures to restore their exposure to the dollar to more favorable types“They expanded from ADCAP.
Ultimately it is mentioned that The treasure could be “taking advantage of” this seasonal currency boom to rebuild reservations discreetly. It should be noted that the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, recently revealed a block operation for US $ 200 million, executed when the export flow was much lower than the current one. In a recent presentation, Caputo highlighted block operations as a preferred mechanism for the accumulation of reserves.
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What is coming: what to expect from the dollar this week
The upward perspectives will continue. This was expressed from Bursatile Burstile: “While great games of agro -exporters are liquidated during this month, the trend seems to be upwards when the withholdings return and finish the thick harvest. In addition, The market seems not to validate the exchange rate to which the government seeks to place debt. This Monday will be the first tender of the month and it will be known what volume the investors of the debt offered from the Treasury again take. At the end of June, the results were not expected by the Executive Power. “
In talk with Scopethe economist Gustavo BerHe said: “I think it continues to influence the expectation of less supply and greater demand post settlements, hence the rearrangement extends. To the extent that it continues to be ordered, and does not generate transfer at prices, it should not generate concerns among investors but even being could be welcome by improving the real exchange rate. “
Source: Ambito
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