An investment bank report highlights that in Argentina there is a process of macroeconomic stabilization in the middle of a stronger activity, improvement of the current account and increased fiscal income.
A report from Morgan Stanley He stressed that The current account deficit was reduced AU $ S150 million in May, the minor registered since June 2024thanks to the advance of agro exports before the end of the withholdings. However, he warned that Red in services and currency demand continues to affect the external balance. In addition, he highlighted the recovery of economic activity: April EMAE grew 1.9% monthly and 7.7% year -on -year, with increases in 12 of the 15 sectors.
According to the investment bank, The BCRA’s currency flow report showed a current account deficit of US $ 0.15 billionthe lowest level since the deficits began in June 2024. In this case they stressed that the improvement was driven by The exporters of grains that advanced the shipments before the expiration of the export tax cuts on July 1.
Despite this improvement, they stressed that The services deficit continues to press the current account dynamics. In this regard, they assured that the financial account showed a deficit of US $ 2.1 billion, due to the increase in dollar purchases.
As for the PBI proxy of April 2025, 1.9% MOM increased, recovering the losses of March. “EMAE expanded 7.7% year -on -year, driven by retail trade (15.6%), manufacturing (7.6%) and financial intermediation (28.4% year -on -year),” they said.
They also echoed, with respect to economic activity, which Twelve of the fifteen sectors showed year -on -year increases. “This week we will obtain the first batch of activity data for May, with IP and construction activity. We hope that both continue their gradual recovery,” they revealed.
JP Morgan maintains its growth forecast
The last report on Argentina from Banco JP Morgan that was released on July 3, just a few days after the influential investment bank will modify your strategy for Argentine assetsrevealed that the entity maintains its annual growth forecast of 5.3% by 2025 although it leaves open the possibility that the increase is higher.
The document indicates that The red account of the balance of payments It was reduced after the implementation of the new policy frame on April 11 (exchange flotation). Registered a deficit of US $ 100 million in May, against 600 million the previous month and 1.5 billion average imbalance in the first quarter of the year.
In addition, JP Morgan’s report argues that “to measure the external payment capacity of the Treasury, the focus is in the short term in the stock of gross liquid reserves of the Central Bank” (that is, gross reserves excluded gold holdings and the swap granted by China). When observing this metric, it stands out that reservations have been recovered strongly in recent months to US $ 16,000 million as of June 23 (last available) compared to US $ 1,000 million registered at the beginning of April (Before the modification of the exchange rate regime).
The estimate of net reserves of this bank (which remains deposit lace in US dollars, swap lines and other liabilities) stood in Less US $ 3,900 million, recovering from the least US $ 7,200 million at the end of May.
This recomposition in the last month was promoted by a repo operation for US $ 2,000 million with international banks YU $ S1.5 billion in pesos emissions (subscribed in the US currency). In addition, the treasure announced that he had bought US $ 200 million in the official exchange market.
Source: Ambito
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