The placement of bonds and letters that the treasure made on Monday for $ 8.5 billionwhich implied a “rollover” of 295% on Lecaps maturities, happened within the framework of the elimination of the Lefis that will cease to exist on Thursday, July 10. In this way, economy seeks to migrate their funds to treasure instruments. But, beyond what could be absorbed in the tender, and if one takes into account that at July 4 the banks maintained $ 15,800 million in Lefis, This week a net injection of pesos will be seen to the system close to $ 10,000 million.
Juan Manuel Francochief economist SBS groupanalyzed the tender of the previous day: “The rollover exceeded 295%, driven by High demand for short lecaps In a context in which banks begin to migrate from the Lefis to other placements given their imminent extinction. So, The bulk of what was captured in the tender was by the short section of Lecaps, as expected. Regarding rates, there was some prize against secondary market. ”
The expert also stressed that “there was a demand for Dollar Linked‘Asset Class’ that had not been offered the last time, a tender in which precisely an adjustable bonus per official dollar won. From here forward, we continue to see the external accounts and the dynamics of the rates as the most relevant macro points looking at the nominality “expanded about what can be expected.
As Max Capital resumed on Monday, The greatest demand was concentrated in the short -term LECAPS (rotation from Lefis), particularly those that expire before the October elections, which represented 77.7% of the amount awarded. The treasure issued $ 6,800 in LECAPS (79.9% of the total), with monthly effective rates of 2.78% (August), 2.65% (September), 2.59% (October) and 2.64% (November).
He also placed three BCAPS for a total of $ 400 million at rates of 2.68% (January 2026), 2.70% (June 2026) and 2.24% (January 2027), and a Bonce for $ 100 million with expiration in March next year. The rates were slightly above those of the previous day market. “They offered again Linked dollar bondswith $ 1 billion awarded between the maturities October 2025 and January 2026, “they said from the same broker.
End of the Lefi: The market is prepared for an injection of $ 10,000 million
Thus, The treasure was already guaranteed that it will absorb $ 5,640 million of the liquidity that will be available in the system from the July 10date on which the Lefis will not be renewed by the BCRA. However, “Beyond the result of Monday, there are still many Lefis in the hands of the banking sector: on Friday they reached the sum of $ 15,780 million,” They highlighted from PPI.
For these experts, “While a portion of these funds will go directly to lace, another part of these flows will demand short -term instruments.” Therefore, they projected “A significant compression” in the yields of the short section of the curve at a fixed rate in pesos and the caution.
In turn the economist Salvador Vitelli, of Romano Group, He also anticipated where he believes that the available flows will go. “Mecon had maturities for $ 2.9 billion and tendered for $ 8.5 billion (295%Roll Over). That is, $ 5.6 billion above. It comes for Lefis disarmament (banks had 15.8 billion -8.8 private billion plus 7 billion public- to 4/7). There are something of 10 billion Lefis, which probably goes to lace in the short term “he said.
Ariel SbdarCEO of Capital coconutsfrom its networks it also echoed the result of the tender. According to their calculations: there are $ 15 billion of Lefis in the hands of banks but the same day they are eliminated they also expire $ 2.9 billion in Lecaps, which gives as total, $ 17.9 billion. If the renewal of $ 8.5 billion is discounted, there are $ 9.4 free billion. “As the Lefis disappear, the government stops paying for silver to 1 day. What do pesos do? They go to quarry, repo between banks or buy longer risk. Result: Low of fixed term rates, lower the active rate and the banks will lend cheaper “hill.
Source: Ambito
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