The markets operate positive for the inflation data in the US and the beginning of the bank balances season, while geopolitical tensions and global economic risks grow.
The main indices of Wall Street He points to a positive day on Tuesday according to what the futures of indices mark, after a day of slight increases on Monday. The markets remain cautious before the Imminent publication of the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) In the United States and the start of the Balancia season, with special attention to the reports of the big banks.
The global environment remains marked by Multiple spotlights of uncertainty. According to Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Swissquote Bank’s senior analyst, “the risks accumulate”: interruptions in the supply chain, inflationary pressures derived from tariffs, deterioration of business margins, unsustainable debt levels in G7 economies and political and geopolitical tensions. Even if former president Trump decided to moderate his speech, the measures already implemented – subsumed with the increase in credit – would have tangible effects on the global economy, he warns.
From Link Securities underline that Investors still interpret Trump’s recent tariff threats as part of its negotiating strategy. “The problem is the unpredictability of the character: their statements can drastically change from one day to the other,” they say. They even emphasize that their recent sayings would have taken by surprise the US and European negotiators themselves, who They believed to be close to a commercial agreement with the European Union. In this context, they warn that the risk is comparable to that of the story of ‘Pedro and El Lobo’, with the possibility that an eventual “surprise” on August 1 has negative consequences.
EXPECTATION FOR THE JUNE CTC OF THE USA
From the macroeconomic plane, the most relevant data will be the June CPI. The market consensus anticipates a general rate rise to 2.7% year -on -year, compared to 2.4% of the previous month. As for the underlying inflation – which excludes food and energy – an advance is projected to 3%.
From Bankinter consider that these figures will be key to evaluating the impact of prices tariffsespecially once accumulated inventories has been exhausted before entry into force. If the projections are confirmed, they indicate that an inflation acceleration could be anticipated in the following months, particularly between July and October, when 30% tariffs could begin to be applied to the EU and Mexico, except prior agreement.
In that scenario, They estimate that the Federal Reserve would probably keep interest rates without changes At his next meeting, despite the pressures exercised by the Trump administration. On the contrary, more moderate figures could reopen the possibility of a low rate in July, something that would be well received by the markets.
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Start of the Banking Season
In the corporate fieldthis Tuesday will begin the season of quarterly results with the reports of JP Morgan, Blackrock, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Bny Mellon.
Kathleen Brooks, Research Director of XTB, points out that although banks do not usually anticipate projections, reports will allow analyzing performance and benefits. Elements such as market volatility and financing costs could have favored the sector.
However, Ozkardeskaya warns that the distance between market enthusiasm and economic reality could increase the risk of correction. “The more the warning signals are ignored, the greater the possibility of a sudden adjustment,” he says.
Source: Ambito
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