A report that circulates on the City argues that while between December 2023 and June of this year the offer of dollars was sustained with different pillars, the situation until October will be completely different.
One of the topics that is most in vogue in the City at this time is How will the government limit the demand for dollars in contexts where the offer begins to fall. It is that between December 2023 and June this year, the dollar stabilized with the help of four bridges: Import payments in fees, money. But these pillars begin to crack and the exchange rate rose 10% in three weeks. How does the story follow?
A report from ECONOMIC STUDIES BANCO PROVINCE He recalled what happened with imports and how the non-agrees went from being a buyer to foreign exchange vendor. “In December 2023, the BCRA established that imports were paid in four installments. Before there were (many) restrictions, but were discretionary and variable. Between December 2023 and April 2024, they harden, and recession through, the non-agro economy went from demanding dollars“
“The payment scheme in installments could not be sustained to infinityand between June and August of 2024, the BCRA went from purchases record to a neutral position. However, in September of ’24 they began arriving The dollars of whitishincreasing provisioning funds. In a context, of low devaluation expected by the stocks (and a fiscal adjustment that reduced the offer of pesos), The dollar credit grew 100% between August 2024 and February 2025 (+7,000 million) and US $ 9,000 million of negotiable obligations were issued“It was remembered in the same report.
But this situation changed In mid -April when inflation had accelerated, and reserves had returned au s24,000 millionafter touching US $ 32,000 million in January. “The output of the thick harvest, accelerated by the decrease in retentions, plus the IMF loan calmed the tensions for a while”explained from Economic Studies Banco Provincia but there are now other condiments that will go in the opposite direction: end of the liquidation of agriculture and the liquidity left by the Lefis.
“Agro liquidation is not yet reduced (it takes a few days more than exports), but will resent in the next few days and the market is anticipated. Besides, The end of the Lefi added 10 billion liquid pesos. A part bought Lecaps, uploading its price and lowering the rates. Thus, the expected offer of agrodollars (for seasonality) was reduced, while increasing the offer of weights for the end of the Lefi and the performance of the LECAPS fell. The last two could be moderated with rates, but the seasonality of agro has already passed.
Supply vs demand: what will happen to the dollar in the second semester
For the economist Claudio Capraulodirector of ANALYTICSunlike other years we are in a second semester without “anabolic” for the change marketthere is no dollar soy or bleaching. In this way, according to this expert, It is logical that the exchange rate rises. “The key is that it reaches A new rapid balance and inside the exchange band. For that mainly The government has to avoid speculative dollarization, Get the expectations about the dollar do not shoot, “he analyzed.
For its part, the economist Federico Glusteinhe focused on analyzing which he thinks could be Government’s strategies to contain demand before a lower supply. “The first thing the government could do is hold An attractive interest rate of short To dry the place as much as I can and avoid migration, especially in these pre -electoral moments, “he said.
“In addition to that, another key strategy can be put instrument tenders in moments of strong pressure on the exchange rate. And these are added The virtual position of neutralization of future expectations That although it had mixed results, it is an acceptable measure in a dialectic that indicates that it will not intervene directly and that the Central Bank will only buy below the band, which leaves the treasure to absorb dollars and is difficult, “he expanded in dialogue with this medium.
Source: Ambito
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