Lefis convulsed exit: where the rates go after the extreme volatility of the last days

Since the Lefis, There was an injection of liquidity into the market of about $ 10 billion, which generated a pressure in various instruments and a collapse in the rates, as happened with the Stock sacks. But the impact also reached the yields offered by the Banks for fixed deadlineswhich adjusted to the new liquidity availability. To try to reverse this collapse, the BCRA went urgently to offer again Passive passes, carrying the rates above 35%, A decision that was very criticized by the City. What will happen in the short term?

Various market sources explain that the contraction of returns He was not so expected by the Government And that this could be evidenced with Two key movements: An extraordinary tender from the Ministry of Economy for this Wednesday and the reappearance of the BCRA in passive passes. Because although A Low of Rats I could have taken him out pressure to the dollar, In a context where offer is about to fall in front of a renewed demandfrom the government something was clear: They want to put the interest rates an apartment.

“What was done on Tuesday by the BCRA with the rate that began to pay for passive passes could have been resolved if the accounts of the excess liquidity that would generate the end of the Lefis had been made. The integration of the banks produced an extreme liquidity overflow that was going to generate a low rate. That the BCRA pays today a rate of passes greater than the rate that remunerated the treasure for the Lefi until last week, is a symptom of improvisation and bad praxis “they assured from Aurum values.

If we focus on what happened with the reappearance of passive passescriticism from the City arrive from everywhere. And there was a strong dispersion of rates levels in a very short term. “In summary accounts: last Tuesday, with Lefis, the reference rate at 1 day was 29%. Last Friday and this Monday, without Lefis, the interbank rate at 1 day dropped to 18%(the one of the bond fell even more), while on Tuesday the BCRA began to pay 36%, just like this Wednesday. That is, in less than a week, the most relevant rate of the economy (which is paid for liquidity) was 29%, 18% and 36%“They explained from the consultant 1816.

This strategy to absorb pesos faces tensions. As explained from PXQ, The exchange rate cannot be controlled simultaneously – through the futures – and the interest rate. Or a rate that stabilizes the dollar is prioritized, or liquidity is flexible accepting more exchange pressure. In fact, from this report, they argued that The Government will use all available tools, especially to stop the increase of the dollar without exhausting reservations.

Rates: the market expects more volatility

By 1816, when lefis and active passes, There is no longer a floor or a roof for the performance of the interbank call (loans between banks one day)which leads to “More volatile and structurally lower rates”. And ensure that if that result is not the desired one, The government will probably intervene in the monetary scheme, as recently did. For this report, as with the exchange rate, Economy seeks that the “float” rate, but within a relatively controlled range.

For its part, from PPIthey also gave their version of what they believe will happen in the short term: “Prior to the jump in Tuesday’s rates, we estimated that The treasure would be more lax in the validation of ratestowards higher levels to those of the secondary market and offering a certain spred in the primary. However, Given the jump of almost 50 basic points in the topics of the short part of the curve, we will probably see a treasure that decides to validate this last levelrather than continuing to offer a prize about these. “

Anyway, according to this stockbroker, on the probable stage that Financial entities maintain a preference for daily liquidity positions, it is not ruled out that the Central Bank will return to rest to ensure a secondary yield floor and avoid new falls in the reference rates that move pressure to the exchange front.

For now, This Wednesday the surprise tender will be carried out that, according to the Minister of Economy, was agreed with the banking sector to absorb the surplus of pesos generated by the disarmament of the Lefis. Specifically, Lecaps will be reopened with expiration at July 31, 2025 (S31L5), on August 15, 2025 (S15G5), as of August 29, 2025 (S29G5), as of September 12, 2025 (S12S5) and as of September 30, 2025 (S30s5). Likewise, the Boncap with expiration will be reopened as of October 17, 2025 (T17O5).