Turn in monetary policy: the City recalibrates projections of the dollar, inflation and rates for the coming months

The disarmament of Lefis stock generated inconveniences in the peso market, which aroused an important volatility Financial this week. Is that, given the change of monetary policy and the end of fiscal letters, the Monetary base increased by $ 9.9 billion or 30%. This enormous liquidity injection caused a collapse in the rates, with the stock market cups that operated in 15% TNA; and motivated a rise in the exchange rate, which reached $ 1,300. To prosecute the situation, The BCRA had to offer passive passesbefore the Ministry of Economy will carry out an emergency tender.

“We saw the economic team hardening its (already restrictive) monetary posture. We continue to believe that Once the volatility linked to the disarmament of the Lefis is over to give impulse to activity and real salary consolidating poverty reduction, But our conviction is less than last week “they indicated this week Facimex In his last report about The economic and financial context.

Interest rates: huge volatility, what to expect in the future?

He Treasureafter a norme low in the rates of Cautions And throughout the curve of Bonds in pesosoffered the reopening of six Lecaps with expiration deadlines between 13 to 91 days, so the average period of the instruments issued was 40 days with a total awarded of $ 4.7 billion. Cutting rates were located in a range of ASD 41-47%. The monthly equivalent rate (TEM) weighted average resulted in 3.15%, higher than 2.38%paid by the Lefi and close to twice the inflation data of the month of June (1.6%).

“The rise in interest rates has disparate consequences in the short and medium term. Immediately, it contains the pressures on the exchange rate. In the medium term, the fiscal result worsens and accelerates the speed at which the economy generates liquidity in pesos, what ends up pressing on the price of the dollar if there is no proportional expansion of currency liquidity (“dollars”), “they explained this week from The latest report by the South American Consultant Vision.

For its part, from Delphos They said: “The output of the Lefis generated unexpected volatility, but we did not see these levels of rates from the exchange unification nor the ´breakeven´ exchange rates outside the band from the scheme change. Added to the fact that the TCRM has been at maximum since May 2024 and the exchange rate closer to the bandrisk asymmetry seems to play in favor of the weight. It will be key to follow the evolution of the exchange rate and the fixed rate curve; If the dynamics improve, a good entry point may appear.

Inflation: What projections are in the short term

From the reports they explain that, although there was an acceleration in the depreciation of the weight, There would not be great risks of “Pass Through” but the measurements for July already place it above June (+1.6%).

“If the dollar remains inside that band until January, March or June 2026a LECAP would offer a return in assured dollarsprovided that this hypothesis is fulfilled. Besides, The implicit inflation for the next two months rose to 2% monthly. Although the increase is not large and, despite the movement of the exchange rate, Price surveys do not show a significant transfer“They revealed from Delphos.

For American Vision, although the June data was better to June, the nucleus inflation still fails to pierce the 2% floor in the three -month mobile measurement (2.4% in June), which suggests for them that “The speed of future disinflation will be slower than that observed after 3% to 2% monthly. “

Dollar: Official intervention brought a “tense calm”

This week the BCRA intervened in the future dollar market. The open interest grew US $ 1,745 million in the last six wheels, with the rise that was concentrated in the July contracts (U $ S842 million) and August (US $ S770 million). In this way The Central Bank managed to stabilize the exchange rate at times where a large injection of weights could have pressed the demand.

“On the pre -election scenario, There is generalized attention to the price of the dollar after the elections. The future dollar curve shows that, despite the interventions of the Central Bank, pressures persist An acceleration of the depreciation rate of the exchange rate after the elections. If this expectation is strengthened or accelerated, some import demand in the coming months will be expected, “they reported from American vision.