Dollar alert: the rhythm of liquidation of the agriculture is strong and greater pressure on the currency is expected

The government must face a new challenge this week: The 15 business days of which exporters had to liquidate their grains with the reduction of withholdings are finished. Without that flow that supplies offer in the change market, a Greater volatility in the dollarin a context in which he already pressed upwards, product of the stumbling block that supposed the elimination of Lefis by the economic team and the dollarization of investors in the prelude to the elections.

SDS grain analyst, Marianella de Emilio, held Scope that “although today the volume of currencies that are specifically part of the export is going to be unveiled, We know that it will not continue to enter the same rhythm. This is because the level of liquidations from the producers fell abruptly after the decline in retentions and, therefore, The currency index is going to be abruptly going from then on“

For its part, the economist of Personal Investor Portfolio (PPI), Melina Eidnerhe explained that until Wednesday the exporters will have time to liquidate what was registered under the Foreign sale statements (DJVE) With lower retentions. “After this period, we hope that the liquidation of agriculture will slow“He said.

Dollar volatility

On that point, he commented that “having advanced liquidation due to the decline of transient withholdings, It is very possible that you cut more than one would foresee for the typical seasonality” Totalized US $ 154 million on Wednesday, U $ S180 million on Thursday YU $ S224 million on Fridayin front of an average U $ 254 million newspapers the five days before. “

The PPI analyst stressed that this fall in the liquidation “will be given in a framework in which, both current account factors (seasonality of foreign trade and tourism), as of the financial account (portfolios dollarization), conspire against the exchange rate. “And he added that” it seems that the volatility in the exchange market arrives to stay. “

In line, The Eco Go economist, Lucio Garayhe supported this medium that “it is coming A high volatility period for the dollar For different reasons. “Among them, he mentioned the liquidation of agric The settlement will be even more limited now“, argument.

Dollarization: between rates and elections

In addition, Garay recalled that “There are the elections and that also adds noise to the dollar”. Finally, he mentioned that “the news in the exchange scheme, The end of the Lefis and the new ‘rates endogeneity’ introduce noise in the peso market, which generates some volatility in yieldsand increases the demand for the dollar relative to that of pesos. “

So far this month, The retail dollar has already risen 7%. In your latest report, Eco Go mentions that the dollarization process “He sharpened” During the last days: “An increase of US $ 2408 million in private deposits in dollars was recorded at the week (without taking into account the rise of US $ 852 million for the accreditation of the payment to bonds) and an exit of US $ 243 million of the cash in the bank of the banks.”

For the economist and partner of the consultant Outlier, Gabriel Caamañothe potential rises of the dollar “It will depend a lot on what the government does with rates and dollar futures“. From his perspective,” it is clear that if the economic team wants to force him down again, It will be more expensive in terms of rate and, therefore, of activity. “

He considered that the demand for dollars “can regulate it with a fee and then, when the cold passes, The net offer of the energy sector returnssomething that in July and end of June was not. “Anyway, he acknowledged that” less offer (dollars) will be “and that” we will have to see what higher rates level are willing to put above the table or for how long they will accept to maintain the current levels. “