Altered rates: The market makes its bets on debt maturities for $ 41 billion in less than two months

The maturities of debt in pesos They are increasingly bulky. After the end of the Lefis, The treasure must refinance approximately $ 41 billion between July and August, equivalent to 5% of GDP. In particular, in July there are $ 11 billion, and in August another $ 30 billion. This happens at a key moment, in front of renewed dollarization pressures, and strong volatility in interest rates, which on Monday climbed up to 50% annual nominal (9 -day bond).

The calendar that will face the Treasury is great: on July 29 they expire $ 11 billion, and in August, the 13, will be $ 19 billion and 27, another $ 11 billion. “The need to renew this high volume of maturities in a scenario of high exchange volatility and increase in the dollar raises a challenge for the government”explained Monday from Bull Market.

But to understand why it is a “challenge” one has to than to remember what happened last week with the “desprolija” departure of the Lefis. The Government intended that The flow of money that was invested in that extinct instrument would migrate towards the LECAPS; however The banks decided to stay with about $ 5 million liquids. “As the Lefis rate worked like a floor for the entire market and now most of the banks were left over pesos, that caused that The interbank rate will collapse“He explained, from his networks, the economist Juan Manuel Telechea.

The consequence was that A lower interest rate discouraged the demand for instruments in pesos and It promoted the purchase of dollars. It was then that the Government decided to make available a disuse tool such as the Passive passes and went to intervene in the market future dollar. The sequence ends with An emergency tender of the Treasury that validated much higher rates to absorb those weights that were free in the market.

“Faced with this new scenario and with the political decision not to validate a exchange dynamic that compromises the nominal anchor of the program and reactive inflationary pressures before the October elections, The government began to deploy part of the Arsenal available to absorb surpluses“The experts of Criteria

They also detailed: “The BCRA reintroduced the Passive passes As an instrument of sterilization (absent since July 2024)while the Treasury placed $ 4.71 billion at an average monthly weighted monthly rate of 3.2%, significantly above the last inflation data (1.6%) and the yields observed in the secondary market, promoting the hiking rate. The message was clear: inflation is not negotiated, although that implies stopping the activity“

THE CAUTION RATE: AN INDICATOR THAT WILL LOOK FOR THIS WEEK

“The look will be set this week to see how the market continues with the reaction, how it operates The bond rate (It touched an annual 70% intradiary maximum on Monday), in addition to how much it quotes the American currency In the country. Yes it continues to press the roof of the band, despite the purchases of the treasure, or stabilizes in the values it currently records “they explained from Bursatile

In that same sense from Max Capital They also agreed to point to the cion rate as the key indicator to follow. “It has been climbing after the tender of the treasure and reflecting the high volatility of the new monetary scheme. The government validated high rates to absorb liquidity, with the aim of relieving pressure on the exchange ratealthough the authorities formally argue that it is part of a strategy to reduce inflation, “they specified.

Treasury tenders and what level of rates can be expected

In talk with Scopethe economist Amilcar Collant He said: “I understand that the Lefi was messy, and now plays against the exchange front has a decrease in the offer of agrodollars. I think the rates will be high at least until the dollar is stabilized and there will be a new tasas-domain balance. If we look a little, the futures seem that without intervention the official dollar should be somewhat higher“

“The Lefis effect opened a period of greater volatility that is expected to stabilize soon after the successive strategies of the authorities. This is because it is combined with the beginning of a stage of Lower currency offer and potential greater demand as coverage Among the economic agents, usual in electoral windows. That is why It will monitor as far as the high real rates are sufficient so that the axiom can be activated that greed wins the fearbeyond that These returns should loosen in the short term with disinflation so as not to damage the economy “explained the economist Gustavo Ber.

For its part, Andrés Reschini, of f2 Financial solutionsin talk with this medium, he said: “The peso market has become unstable after Lefis’s disarmament and still does not find a clear channel. In the last tender the mecon had to validate higher rates, of about 3% TeMs and now, a little more than half a session on Monday, the shorter Lecaps yields reach up to 4% Tem. So to these values The mecon should validate still superior rates to those of the last tender, although we will have to see if the market achieves a new balance and at what level of rates. “

Finally, the economist Jorge Neyroalso contributed his gaze: “Given the quite volatile financial situation in short rates, lecaps and other instruments, The treasure will have to validate market rates added to the bulky maturities. Probably the next tender will be similar tenders the last one we saw, also to be able to validate a certain shortage of pesos after the disarmament of the Lefis. “