It should be remembered that before the end of the Lefisthese had a fixed rate that was in 29% TNA; Once they were eliminated, the rates suffered a strong contraction and then shot up to 36% with the reappearance of the Passive passes. Subsequently the Treasure He validated An annual effective internal rate (TIRA) of 45%. This week the Rally Rally of the Rates remained active, with Stocking hubs that flew up to 80% TNA and then lose more 20 percentage points at the closure. He Official dollaron the other hand, it rose 3.1% in the last 4 and a half weeks.
As for what can come from now on with these two variables, the analyst Christian Buter, in talk with Scopehe said he believes that rates They will go down from the current level (the stock market caution reached 80% TNA) but remarked that they believe they will continue “Something volatile”. How what will happen to the dollar, He projected that the American currency will position himself, in the second semester, between the center and the ceiling of the flotation band.
“We have to keep in mind that We are approaching the elections and generally what happens is that a dualization of portfolios appears. That will generate more demand and we will surely see some additional increase in the dollar, but I also hope that the volatility we live in in recent days with respect to the rates is going down, “Buteer expanded.
Rate and Dollar: What expectations are there to “anchor”
The economist Gabriel Caamaño, of Outlier, Also in dialogue with this medium he said that “if the exchange rate stabilizes, the rate has to start loosening”, a dynamic that began to be seen in the previous day.
For the expert, The interest rate has an important currency award component for exchange rate expectations That they “disagree”: “With which if those expectations are anchored again, there would be a more stable exchange rate, not so bullish, so the rate has to start down again.”
“The real rates are currently very high, and that level does not correspond to a stabilized situation. If you really are expectations, and the exchange rate stabilizes, they have to lower the rates“Caamaño concluded.
Volatility, how much will it continue?
For its part, Eric Paniaguapartner of Dekadrak Venture Capital Consultingalso provided its projections for this medium. For him it is feasible that Volatility in interest rates continue and remember that this happens after The Central Bank decided to move to a monetary aggregate system from the monetary policy scheme.
“If the interest rate continues up, the dollar should be relatively calm”he predicted, while on the foreign currency he remarked that he shows a upward trend sustained in the last three weeks.
“I don’t think it’s going to give way easily, but it would not seem to shoot yourself vertiginously”he expressed and assured that it is “Very feasible” that The order of $ 1,250/$ 1,300 is located for the end of the month and about the rates He believes that They will remain “strongly” positive with respect to the inflation expected.
Source: Ambito
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