The main macroeconomic variables of the country show signals of improvement. However, microeconomy is still beaten and still It does not give indications of a sustained recovery in the short term. Even so, market specialists consider that Some shares of Argentine companies linked to the real economy have growth potential.
What about the economy?
According Lucio Garay Méndezanalyst at the consulting firm Eco Go, The most important “driver” of the local economy had been creditreason why now It is expected that there will be less growth. “The loan stock shows a clear slowdown and these levels of real interest rate together with the increase in blackberries reinforce the idea that credit growth will be exhausted sooner rather than later. In parallel, the fall in purchasing power also threatens the growth of the economy in the coming months,” said the expert.
“After a fall and recovery, along with another slight decline in May, we are at levels of February. Anyway, it is important to consider that it is a heterogeneous economy. To exemplify, the construction in May fell 6% in the monthly measurement measurement, while agriculture and fishing had good growth,” he said.
OPPORTUNITIES IN ACTIONS OF S&P MERVAL
In this context, financial executives consider that they exist investment opportunitiesespecially contemplating the fall in prices of the shares of local companies of recent times.
“Among the most lagging roles, they stand out Ternium (Txar) and ALUAR (ALUA). The latter could benefit if conversations thrive (for now, only rumors) between Argentina and the US around an agreement on aluminum tariffs, ”said the financial advisor Mariano Monferini.
“In turn, the energy sector, strongly linked to the real economy, deserves attention. YPF (YPFD) and Pampa Energía (Pamp)as to give examples, ”he added.
In this line, the consultant Fernando Villar He said that, after the 25% drop in Merval dollars so far this year and assuming an electoral scenario starring a victory of the ruling party, then The energy sector would be a clear winner.
“Either with YPF or Oil & Gas Vista (view)I think there is an opportunity to capture future value. And as for the financial sector, between Argentine bags and markets (byma) and VALUES FINANCIAL GROUP (VALO)with the growth of the entire financial sector that was in recent times, as regulations were taken, I think there is value to have those shares in the portfolio, ”said the expert.
In any case, we must not forget that Argentine actions are very sensitive to interest rateslike the real economy itself. “Betting on actions in this context implies assuming that the current level of rates will eventually stabilize at more sustainable levels. Finally, another key event is the electoral calendar. A good performance of the ruling party could reinforce the expectations of structural reforms and greater growth in the medium and long term, which would be favorable for the Argentine equity,” Monferini recalled.
Source: Ambito
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