Some artifice fires amid the pandemónium of the local financial market, after the disarmament of the Lefi. Bid with key in the rate. The juggling of the “Toto”. The star song was the caution. “Carry” how far. Machinea’s memory in the late ’80s.
While the May tonic maintained He kept surprising the official data of the Central Bank (BCRA) on how the reconquest table closed its positions sold in dollar futures last month. In the end it dropped them at about US $ 37 million compared to July with a stock of almost US $ 1,910 million, which speaks of the tenor of the interventions. Actually, The market estimated no less than US $ 2,100/$ 2,200 million, so the BCRA surprised. The other that also surprised was the “Single more coveted” of the libertarian government -with its unexpected departure from the advisory table of President Milei-,, Demian Reidelwhich apparently returns to its first love, atomic energy, from the presidency of Nucleoelectric, after leaving several hearts injured in this and in the previous management. But the comment, among operators, was that It caught the attention, how several adopted survivors of the Cambiemos experiment are “taking off”, although some, as Reidel are still linked to official “projects”. After all, some artifice fires amid the pandemónium of the local financial market, after the disarmament of the Lefi.
In an outside meeting, one of the most active managers in frank growth, summoned institutional and “Private Banking” To evaluate what to do in this convulsed market. Consensus on the transience of rates of interest short positive as the current ones, because they put a high floor for any debt issuance, and also because the “rollover” of the “Toto” Caputo & Co. In this regard, the head of the host table recalled that at the end of the month they win no less than about $ 12 billion, mainly for a letter in pesos of the capitalizable treasure. Because The key is to discern to what levels of market rates will be carried out next weekbecause if the current ones are maintained, they risk that it will be complicated for finance hosts. Perhaps, this explains why the BCRA flexible the schedule of the immediate liquidity window, aiming to stabilize the rate one day.
What the head of the table explained is that Lacking a “overnight” rate, the banks will fit more liquidity in the BCRA and the effect will be to adjust passive rates. Hence, the mes from are waiting for the flow of bailouts on the Money Market and redirect to the caution menu intensifies. A well -known economist related to the government outlined at that height of the meeting that the passage to the side of the BCRA of the peso market provided a space to the treasure to get into, in reference to the fact that within a month the LECAP are worth a little more than 95% so that the reward scenario could consider and thus save the “modic” sum of half a half billion pesos. After the closure of the market arrived The “novelty” from Washington so that the minister has a little peace on the weekend, but as he advanced last week since this section, The disbursement of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will come in early August, so that the “Toto” will have to make some juggling and adjustments until then.
DOLLAR BCRA INTERVENTION RESERVES
The star song was the caution
There is no doubt that The fashion theme remains the dollar, but in the last days, the star song was the hound And its abrupt rises, for the moment, considered a distortion of the market after the disarmament of the Lefi and the greater pressure in the exchange market. The “Carry” strategies evaluated showed, according to the exchange between tables, that there is still room to win, but in the very short term. The latest political and financial noises did nothing but advance the pre -election “Deadline”, that is, How far investors would be positioned in the “Carry” before October 26. Today an attractive combination in the dollar levels of approximately $ 1,230 is an arbitration, for example, between a 26 and the AL30 bonce. An issue to consider, warned in a bank, is that if currency purchases by the treasure improve the pulls of the dollar bonds, we will have to see how they end up impacting the real rates.
Everyone looks at the 3 -month LECAP with the current real rates. If so, the evolution of the credit would also be conditioned by the adverse selection that financial entities may have to provide very high real rates only to risky credit subjects. If this happens, the rates could stop climbing, because the banks would make the decision to reduce their balances to limit the credit risk, but the loans would stop growing or even fall in real terms.
What else was talked at the tables?: Consensus on the comeback of the non -forced error of the Lefis etc. etc that did nothing but add exchange tension in full electoral career and with the worst seasonality of the dollar offer; that the Government went out to give profitability to the orphaned weights by raising short interest rates and intervening in the futures curve so that the dollar does not escape from the $ 1,300 (playing hard on the short to carry it below the spot so that banks and companies sell spot dollars and reompress future), but left an inconsistent rates path with the expectation of inflation; That for now the transfer at prices remains low, but the countercara was the dollarization process that was exacerbated.
Machinea’s memory and IMF manual on rates
There was a Counterpoint between a young well -known economist and a colleague former high official in the vicinity of La Ruralperhaps anticipating the climate of the official inauguration, the truth is that The young man defended the official action Remembering that a BCRA had been inherited that issued a monetary base per quarter following the Leliq, former Lebac, and the disarmament of that monetary pump without emitting was part, part, to the treasure, shielded in more than a year and a half with fiscal surplus, and to finish the normalization it had to disarm the $ 10 billion of Lefis now imposing an endogenous rate determined by the market. The veteran replied, given the expectation of casual witnesses who shared lunch, that the treasure still has to do the “rollover” of a lot The Toto team chose to make the most attractive debt shortening the maturity and with lower ratesand remembered how it ended José Machinea in the late ’80: With daily letters (passes to one day they represent the indebtedness of the BCRA).
BCRA FMI.WEBP
To cut the weather one of the newly arrived witnesses of Washington, said that The IMF has just launched a new chapter of the Technical Assistance Manual on the exchange rate reference. It looked like a joke, but no. He commented that this new chapter provides guidance to the central banks on the development of solid frames for the determination of the exchange rate reference rate, addressing the key challenges faced by emerging markets, and above all things, it provides alternative methodological approaches for the calculation of the exchange rate reference rate, adapted to different policy objectives and market conditions. Able they send it to Toto to read. For now, he continues to buy dollars as they “hinted” from the bottom.
The march of the “Carry” globally
In this regard, in this lunch plagued by professional and academic economists, there was very well spoken of the Argentine representative in the background, Leonardo Madcur, son -in -law of a well -known political ambassador and son of a sanjuanino businessman of construction, one of the main architects of the good climate of the technicians of the fund towards the Argentine case. He also commented, as he heard in the DC, that The global “carry” shows that net short positions in dollars have decreased for the third consecutive week, driven by a decrease in short positions. As explained by the US Curve OIS suggests that investors are positioned for less than two cuts of 25 basic points by the Fed by the end of the year, so the dollar has been the G10 currency with the best yield so far this month, but the worst so far this year; While long net positions in euros increased for the second consecutive week, driven by a decrease in short positions (they have been at their highest level since December 2023, with more than 128,000 positions; and as for the Yen, the long net positions in the Japanese curren So far this month, and investors are positioned for a decision of no changes in the meeting of the Bank of Japan on July 31.
Source: Ambito
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