Key to the dollar: why despite the decline of retentions a flood of liquidations is not expected

In this regard Mariela BrandoliniFinancial grain and investment market consultant, he said, in talk with this medium, which There are still about 30 million tons pending to set a price. But “so that this amount is effectively liquidated will depend on If prices show favorable evolution “and that, if this happens, “It could generate sales to activate again, “he warned.

It should be noted that The temporary decline of retentions to agro had ended last June 30in which 33% had been re -established for soybeans and 12% for corn (before were 26% and 9.5%, figures to which they returned with Saturday’s announcement), this measure was governed since the end of January and stimulated a record liquidation of the sector. “Dex’s temporary decline significantly promoted the sales flow, reaching A 43% advance in commercialization, compared to the historical average of 35% for this time of year “Brandolini explained.

“However, as observed in the graph, As of June 30, sales were practically stopped “added the expert. As for what could come again with the decline in withholdings, but now permanently, He explained: “The market had already anticipated part of this movement. The real impact will depend on the level of supply that buyers and their urgency have to make merchandise“

Low of retentions: after record liquidation, what is the reach of the new announcement?

As mentioned above, this announcement comes a month after the decline in retentions, which was in force between February and June, and after in recent weeks renewed exchange pressures, with an official dollar that advances 7.5% so far this month. “The objective would seem to extend the harvest settlement period to relieve exchange tensions and increase production for next year”they explained from Max Capital.

But, although this is the search by the government, they argue that in practice, “Who did not liquidate before June 30 is hard to do it now for doing so, which could limit its exchange effect”they assured from the same report. However, they stressed that “The news is positive forward: it reduces the tax pressure and allows a higher level of production. In annual terms, the cost of the measures would be 0.2% of GDP.”

According to Roman Danteprofessor and researcher at the Center for Agribusiness and Foods of the Universidad Austral, when the business rhythm stopped and began to fall, “The situation generated concern on the side of the buyers, who had already acquired an important volume and needed to be assigned price to the soy delivered or committed.” He added that “The announcement arrived at a fair moment, when a decrease in security stocks was already noticeable.”

The specialist projected that The measure can contribute to normalize sales dynamics, especially in nearby positions. “This generates a theoretical price improvement of about US $ 25 per ton (TN) in soybeans, US $ 5/tn in corn yu $ s7/tn in sunflower”Romano estimated. And agreed with other experts by maintaining that The real impact is more limited because the market was already anticipating this scenario.

What other factors weigh so that the settlement continues

In talk with this medium, the agronomist, Javier Preciado Patiño estimated that There are still between 18 and 20 million tons of soybeans to sell for export and about 15 million tons of cornwhich represents, at today’s price, about US $ 11,000 million.

“In the case of corn, it is complete until August and the second half of the campaign is missing, which is from September to February. In the case of soybeans, it is complete until September and lack from October to March,” he said. A clarified that These liquidations will be specified according to how the market is.

For this expert, The producer’s decision to sell will be linked to several factors: First, the need to export and go to look for merchandise to buy, second, how international prices, third, the influence of the exchange rate and finally, the climate evolve. “The liquidation will depend fundamentally on how the market is handled because when the withdrawal is permanent, you have no deadline for, yes or yes, sell and take advantage of that offer”hill.