In a key month, beginning of the second semester, the Wholesale dollar It rose $ 90 (+7.5%) so far in July And it already writes its greatest advance since April, which could be modified towards the closure of the seventh month of the year. Meanwhile, the parallel exchange rate climbed $ 105 (+8.6%) And thus marks its greatest rise since December 2024. Facing August, what does the City expect for the behavior of the currency?
Julio’s keys were Reimposition of full withholdings to the fieldmeasure that this weekend the president Javier Milei He chose Retropraer and cut the aliquots again. In turn, they also played an important role Electoral uncertainty escalation and the LEFIS DISASSEMBLYwith its consequence on interest rates and direction towards stockcats.
Challenges for the dollar in August
Among the challenges that the dollar will have In August, specialists highlight the offer shortagein a month where the field settlement. The impulse could come with the Low of retentionsalthough there is still no security for this to be possible.
The rates passed from 33% to the 26% For the soy; of the 31% to the 24.5% For the soy -by -products; of the 12% to the 9.5% For him corn and the sorghum; of the 7.5% to the 5% For him sunflower; and of 6.75% to the 5% For the Vaccine and avian meat.
In that line, the specialist Eric Paniagua He stressed that “the decline in withholdings should foster greater liquidation, although the issue is whether this will be permanent. It is not expected to be a point settlement, it should be sustained and distributed over time so that it probably does not end to brutally affect or give a dock to the price of the dollar.”
“He exchange rate scheme and the interest rate They also play a key role, where the government continues to increase these liabilities derived from instruments that become a snowball, but that at the time you decide not to renew, we would have a liquidity effect on the market that could influence the value of the official dollar and the blue dollar, approaching the band roof and this, in turn, would compromise the low inflation strategy, “said the economist Federico Glustein.
In turn, the economist Gustavo Quintana He added that the appetite for the “Carry Trade” could contribute to the pause in the demand of the dollar, as well as the positive reading of the decline of retentions beyond the usual pre -election dollarization.
The review of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)as well as the eventual currency income for Get the reservations. Also, Glustein added that he will affect “If economic growth stagnates”.
Dollar: How much can arrive in August
In August and with the distinctive demand of the second semester, it also joins the Pre -election uncertainty which leads Argentines towards the dollarization of portfolios. “It is possible that the dollar remains in this range floating among the $ 1,200 and $ 1,300while the Blue It will be in the same dynamic as the officer, but with a probably more bullish trend, “he said Paniagua.
For its part, Gustavo Ber He estimated that the official exchange rate could be in the range of $ 1,270 to the $ 1,320.
Source: Ambito
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