The President Javier Milei announced during the exhibition in the rural new Low of retentions For different agricultural complexes. Given the novelty, the market began to study the implications of the measure and whether it opens or not investment opportunities.
Specifically, the new percentages of withholdings are: 26% for soybean (before was 33%)9.5% for corn and wheat (before 12%), 5.5% for sunflower (before 7%) and 5% for meat (formerly 6.75%).
According to Leonardo Anzalonedirector of the Center for Political and Economic Studies (CEPEC), “the reduction of retentions generates concrete benefits for the agro -export sector, improving profitability margins especially for producers with scale.”
According to the reported data, The sector is already showing significant performancewith a growth of 40% year -on -year in agroindustrial exports during the first semester, within the framework of the temporal decline of retentions that governed until June 30.
Beyond the decline of retentions to agriculture
The main positive effects include a greater liquidity for producerswith additional margins estimated at US $20 OU $30 per ton in soybeans, incentives for the marketing of the remaining stock of grains, which amounts to $ 15,000 million and an improvement in relative competitiveness against other exporting countries.
However, it still remains Much route ahead so that the sector really releases its entire potential.
“We consider that, if the measure is not accompanied by a comprehensive reform of the tax scheme and long -term clear rules, the real impact on investment decisions can be limited: for many producers the fiscal and exchange uncertainty continues to prevail,” he said Martin d’Doricodirector of Guardian Capital.
“The announcement is a positive signal, but the true investment catalysts in the Argentine agro will continue to be macroeconomic stability and normative predictability,” he concluded.
Investment opportunities in the field
Even so, thinking in the future, market experts consider that some are negotiated in the local stock market companies that could benefit sooner or later.
“The price of an action depends, in large part, on the present value of future flows. Therefore, a permanent decrease in retentions improves the intrinsic value of companies linked to the agro -export sector. Some of this is already being seen in the market: Agro mill (cool) He came to rise about 10% at the beginning of the day, ”said the Financial Advisor and Analyst Mariano Monferini.
“Another outstanding company is Adecoagrowhich is quoted in the New York Stock Exchange, but can be acquired locally through the Yield adgo. Although it is linked to agriculture, it has a diversified production in several countries, so the impact of the measure is not as direct as Mola. These two companies present the strongest balances within the segment, ”he added.
The executive then mentioned the cases of Cresud (Cres)whose main shareholder is Eduardo Elsztain (also owner of IRSA), and Mirgor (Mirg)traditionally focused on Technology in Tierra del Fuego, which began to enter businesses linked to agriculture, probably in search of diversification to reduce its dependence on the industrial sector.
“A more risky bet is Oath inverter (INVJ)whose main activity is livestock production with a vertical integration model. It is controlled by the Brito family, also a majority shareholder of Banco Macro. And a company that could benefit indirectly is Agrometal, manufacturer of agricultural machinery, since a sustained improvement in the profitability of the field could boost investment in technology, ”Monferini concluded.
Source: Ambito
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