Dollar: The BCRA intensifies intervention in futures and the activity touches a new record in three years

The official intervention in the future dollar market continues this Tuesday, July 29as he could collect Scope of market sources, after the previous day The open interest (that is, the amount of contracts in force) reached a new maximum after several years with a total coverage for US $ 7,071 million. In this way, from the City they ensure that the government is maintained in The search to reduce devaluation expectations by increasing its participation in this market.

In detail, from PPI They explained that the open interest climbed on Monday au $ 206 million, after leaving its rhythm of rise in the previous three days ( +U $ S116 million on 07/23, +U $ 36 million on 07/24 and +US $ 118 million on 07/25). Therefore, they explained, “He resumed a rhythm of increase similar to that exhibited between July 10 and July 22, when he advanced on average US $ 287 million per day.”

In this way, in the report prepared by the consultant, they notified that The interest was fired US $ 3,063 million in the last thirteen wheels up to US $ 7,071 million, the highest level since the end of July 2022 (U $ S7.208 million), when it marked a record in Alberto Fernández management. “While it cannot be affirmed that all this rebound is explained by the actions of the BCRA, the magnitude of the rise suggests that a large part is due to its intervention “they highlighted.

For its part, from Outlier They also echoed these amounts: “As happened on Friday, the July rate closed the negative wheel (even more on Monday) and about 206,176 new positions were opened. This leaves the total open interest above 7,071,000 contracts with 1,371,483 operated on the wheel. The OI is a maximum of the Milei management and already competes with peaks of previous efforts. “

But, despite this, they also gave their verdict from now on, by maintaining that “This figure is not going to be maintained For a long time since in three wheels the future of July expires and that generates a fall in open interest that takes to recover “. “This proximity to expiration also brings to the Roll phenomenon, and which shows a lot of operation in August: not only 208,422 contracts were opened, but it was the most operated position,” they expanded.

From Outlier They affirmed that, despite the negative rate in July, They believe that August is where the BCRA concentrates the intervention. “

Intervention: The implications of the mechanisms used by the Government

The government not only uses The intervention in the future dollar as a way of anchoring expectations but staging the passive passes Through rest to try to control the interest rate, very volatile since the end of the Lefis. “What is on top of the table is a clear disorder of the scheme or monetary-chart regime that is being implemented,” they explained from Outlier.

“The objective remains to sustain the dollar at a level compatible with the sinned disinflation path and all the rest is subordinated to that issue. Including the supposedly endogenous rate and the progress of economic activity. Read, beyond the change in the scheme, The exchange anchor is still in force in the government’s claimsonly now you have less instruments to materialize that claim (You cannot intervene directly in the spot). So you must use other instruments more intensively: Rate and future. In practice, it is more a change of instruments, than anchor“They sentenced.

In turn, from Cohen analyzed what happened last week: “The disarmament of the Lefis was more expensive than expected and forced the BCRA to offer new liquidity instruments to stabilize rates. The exchange rate also operated unstable and Keep the rising pressure in the highest tension in the exchange marketwhich puts a floor to The rates, which would stabilize at a level significantly higher than that of the previous months. This will have an impact on the activity, which in recent months stagnated, and gives air to the inflation being contained and the exchange rate can continue to recover competitiveness. “

Dollar: At what level could be stabilized

“The wholesale dollar threws again with testing the $ 1,300, a level that on previous occasions lasted little since bets were reactivated towards the ‘Carry’. This is because it is evaluated that it would be an important short -term level, beyond what could be overcome in orderly in front of electoral dollarizationand simulations that indicate that Some LECAPS and BANCAPS could even return in dollars even in scenarios where the currency reaches the roof of the band “explained this day Gustavo Ber.