The official dollar was overwhelmed: it jumped $ 25 and reached $ 1,325 at the National Bank despite pesos in pesos

In it wholesale segmentwhich is the market reference, the dollar climbed hard about $ 24 at $ 1,315 per unit despite the previous decline, at a wheel that registered a slight decrease in the negotiated volume (US $ 404,235 million in the segment counted) and operated with a strong buying trend on the end of the day for the demand for coverage and the one destined to meet obligations with the outside.

However, market sources reported that in the abrupt rise on the closure of the day there was a low volume in the spot, of about US $20 million, which also promoted financial dollars.

For its part, the Official dollar Retailer advanced a $ 1,325.6 for sale in the average of the financial institutions published by the Central Bank (BCRA). Meanwhile, in the National Bank The ticket closed to $ 1,275 For purchase and $ 1,325 For sale.

Inside the parallels, the Blue dollar “Flat” operated a $ 1,320, According to a survey of Scope in the City caves. In the bag, the dollar MEP rises 1.4% a $ 1,312.78 and the dollar Counted with liquidation (CCL) 2% scale a $ 1,315.22.

In the segment of future dollar, the “price” market that the wholesale exchange rate will be located at the end of the month in the $ 1,308 (below the current level) and that by the end of December will reach the $ 1,494a value notoriously higher than the one foreseen in the advancement of the 2026 budget, around $ 1,229.

About the 1.86% jump that gave the wholesale exchange rate, the economist Christian Buter He expressed through X that future end of the month were sold below the cash price, but that it also closed at maximum, and that the December contracts reached the band’s ceiling. In total, $ 1,225 million were negotiated in futures.

Lecaps bounced and climbed up to 1.3%

The economist Gustavo Ber He stressed that simulations already show that “Some Lecaps offer competitive returns in dollars”, Even in scenarios where the ceiling of the exchange rate of the exchange rate will be reached. This Wednesday, Lecaps bounced and scored daily rises of up to 1.3%after the increase in rates recorded in the tender on Tuesday of the Treasure.

In dialogue with Scope, Matías RajnermanChief of Macroeconomics of the Province Bank, analyzed the exchange dynamics of the closure of the day and remarked that the exchange rate accelerated on the end of the wheel, but that at that time the price of the LECAPS was not falling, so he understands that the pressure did not come on that side. “Nor does it seem that there was a significant intervention of the BCRA in the futures market”detailed and highlighted a relevant technical fact: “The future of July, which expires this Thursday, closed below the official dollar – $ 1.315 compared to $ 1,308 – which is not usual.” This situation, rare, had already happened this week.

Regarding the management of weights in the market, Rajnerman explained: “While part of the $ 2.8 billion that were ‘loose’ after the last tender will be used to adapt lace, another part was left out for uncertainty about the economic direction”. In that context, he believes that it is likely that part of the pressure on the dollar has come through that channel. He also indicated that the fact that the dollar rises, even after the Ministry of Economy He will validate a rise in rates, shows that, at least in the short term, “The market is demanding even more performance to stay in pesos“

As for the rollover of only 76% of the maturities, the Secretary of Finance Pablo Quirno said the same was conditioned by the increase in the demand for liquidity generated by the rise in the Bank lace. As of August 1, the BCRA elevates 20% to the 30% the MINIMUM LACK REQUIREMENT For deposits in pesos in view of the Common investment funds (FCI) Money Market and stock market couccion.

“The rates are already in a field of decreasing yields”

Rajnerman also warned that rates are already in a field of decreasing yieldssince it is not the same going from 2% to 3% or from 3% to 4%, than from 4% to 5%. “He who did not want pesos so far changing his mind if the rates rise ‘a little more,” he added. In that sense, he considered that whoever continues to buy dollars with these rates hardly changed their minds with moderate increases: “Obviously, its distrust in the Argentine currency goes beyond a marginal decision to look at short yields.”.

In turn, he pointed out that “The exchange rate still has a lot of room to get to the band’s roof”adding: “With these rates, the dollar should reach $ 1,360 so that the LECAP expiring at the end of October throws a yield above the roof of the band of that moment ($ 1,500).” According to the economist, this shows that the market does not expect the dollar to exceed that roof in the short term, but also that “if the adverse scenario continues to gain ground, the dollar has some route even up.”