He Government anticipated that it will maintain The monetary squeery during the next call for debt bidding in pesos totaling $38 billion in August and the same until October. To do this, you will pay the rates demanded by the market and will not release liquidity so that the cost of money goes down, although this represents a new maturity of maturities up to the elections.
This was noted by the Secretary of Finance, Pablo Quirno. The official explained, after the tender on Tuesday in which he endors We have a very restrictive monetary policy where the rate is determined endogenous “. “We are not going to release liquidity to lower the rates “ The official said. This, despite running the risk of a new maturity wall. Quirno explained that in that call $ 9 billion were renewed over a total of $ 11.8 billion because the banks demanded liquidity to integrate lace in August.
According to private data, Next month there will be two maturities for a total of $ 38 billion, But about $ 10 billion correspond to the Central Bank. Another $ 38 billion will subtract to the elections, to which intrastado holdings should be deducted. Then, the goal of Quirno will be to generate a proposal for about $ 14 billion for the 13th next month and many others for the end of the month.
Matías Rajnerman, economist at the Center for Studies of the Province Bankexplained to the scope that “Somehow a wall of maturities was armed ” prior to the October elections. Faced with this, one of the possible measures to withdraw liquidity, which the National Government could take, It would be to call some debt exchange. Rajnerman considered that it is not clear if such a scenario can occur.
It should be remembered that during the last year of the government of Alberto Fernández, with Sergio Massa in the conduct of the Ministry of Economy, he was appealed almost every month to offer long -term exchanges, until after the elections.
In this regard, the consultant Balances He stated that “The maturity profile for the remainder of the year is very challenging since $ 38 billion expires in August (4.4% of GDP) and another $ 38 billion between September and October. ”In this case, it balances the intra -state debt.
Greater prize for the shortest deadlines
If the result of the last tender is analyzed, The national government seems to want the maturities to go shorter. Balaba points out that the treasure managed to renew 76.3% of the commitments. Quirno indicated that this lower renewal is related to demand for banks to integrate new lace standards in August. Although $ 2.8 billion left over, for the consultant balances what is necessary would be $ 1.5 billion only.
“The shortest LECAP (S15G5, 15 days) monopolized 41.4% of the awardedvalidating a monthly effective rate of 4.3%. This rate implied a considerable prize if the closure of Tuesday in the secondary market (3.8%) is taken into account, The short repo rate (3.8%), and the rate at which the shortest LECAP (S31L5) cut in the 16/7 (3.3%) tender, ”says the consultant.
One of the market speculation is that The government tries to continue paying higher rates than the values of the lecaps in the secondary markets, Although that begins to generate a new mass of interest, which will end up paying the treasure.
Source: Ambito
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