He Retail dollar does not stop its upward climb and touches on Thursday the $ 1,375 For the sale of the National Bank, $ 50 above the previous closure. In a retail market that measures the Central Bank (BCRA), it crosses $ 1,367.32, while the currency supply is run and the demand is firm.
On the other hand, within what is the types of parallel changes, the dollar Blue, meanwhile, is sold at $ 1,330, According to a survey of Scope in the City of the City, while the MEP It rises almost 2.5% to $ 1,355.41 and the CCL 3% progress to $ 1,358.89. And, in the segment wholesalerwhich is the market reference, the dollar climbs up to the $ 1,360 per unit.
After the strong advance on Wednesday, in the segment of future dollar, They replicate this trend this Thursday and shoot the quotes again. Within them, the most rise contracts are the shortest: August rises 3.7% and marks $ 1,400, while By the end of the year, the “Price” market that the dollar reaches $ 1,535, with an advance of 2.4%.
If the values of this day are taken into account, The officer is 7.1% below the upper band of $ 1,451.5 (Remember that it is adjusted to a rhythm of 1% monthly) and 40.6% above the floor of the flotation band of $ 964.1 (It decreases at 1% monthly). And if the center of the band is taken to $ 1,208.7, the current value is above 12.2%.
The BCRA intervenes the rates to control the dollar
“The government seems to be focused on contain exchange volatility and would be willing to defend the level of the exchange rate through rates policy. Recent actions reinforce the idea that the BCRA is actively trying to establish An apartment in the short section of the curve to prop up the exchange scheme“They explained from Max Capital.
It should be noted that Tuesday, The treasure validated rates to 65% TNA, which places this level well above the one operated in the secondary marketwhich did not replicate these yields. “It is worth clarifying that the compression of fees was from highest to minor during the wheel on Wednesday in a context where The Central Bank reappeared in the passes window in the afternoon offering (passive) operations of up to 39% TNA “they added from PPI.
The offer of dollars falls due to the decline in agro settlement
It should be noted that since January, The Government of Javier Milei implemented a temporary reduction of the retentions to agricultural exports, which was in force until June 30However, the affidavit statements of foreign sales (DJVE), which have a 15 -day delay, They finished liquidating during the first weeks of this month. By entity, the last days of the month operated with the withholdings without remove, to cite an example, with 36%soybeans.
And while Javier Milei announced in his exhibition in La Rural the reduction of permanent retentions (a 20% cut for the grain chain and 26% for the meat chain), This was just formalized this Thursday in the Official Gazette, which implies that it will start running only in August. This explains the sharp drop in the offer of dollars for the lowest liquidation corresponding to this last week.
Thus, the liquidation of the agricultural sector is close to finishing the month (until July 30) at US $ 4,039 millionaccording to data provided by El Economista Amilcar Collantehowever, in evolution it can be seen as As of July 23, the amounts decrease strongly from the US $ 187 million to the minimum of July 29 which was located at US $23 million corresponding to the days when the retentions were no longer ran.
How far does the dollar have margin to climb
According to him ECONOMIC STUDIES BANCO PROVINCE They did a theoretical year to know how much margin the dollar has to climb: “If the dollar advances at $ 1,420, and if the end of the August of August is maintained at 3.6% monthly, with those $ 1,420 we buy a LECAP (not a dollar) and the end of August we have $ 1,465 pesos: the roof of the band.”
And they expanded: “With these numbers, there is still room for the exchange rate to rise. While the distance to the band’s roof exceeds the performance that the LECAP has to its payment date (7.5% and 3%), the Carry will continue discovered. More dollar or much more rate would balance the account“
Source: Ambito
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