In a highly volatile wheel, the Official Wholesale Dollar shot $ 59 (+4.6%) this Thursday at $ 1,374 for sale, a new nominal record since the departure of the stockswhile Future contracts They reheated until 4.3%, to the point that The price by the end of December exceeded the ceiling of the flotation band. Before this scenario, City analysts They do not rule out that the exchange rate touches the upper limit of the band, explain why the market ignores, for now, to the Supercase In pesos, and look at the demand for coverage, in the face of October elections.
In the wholesale segment, The dollar scored its greatest daily rise in three monthsalmost two weeks after the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputoand the head of the Central Bank, Santiago Bausilithey will announce the New exchange rate of flotation between bands.
After the rise on Thursday, the wholesale exchange rate was 5.6% of the band of the band, which is currently located in the $ 1,451.50. In that sense, the economist Federico Glustein He did not rule out that the official dollar touches the upper limit of the band, since market expectations “are disagreement “.
“The rise of the official dollar responds to multiple factors, including the Exchange rate accumulatedthe perception that the current scheme has a limitand a context of greater demand on the part of the market, fed by the political uncertainty and the electoral climate that already begins to feel, “he analyzed Leonardo Anzalone of CEPEC in dialogue with Scope.
The Supercenta as an anchor, does it not work?
The Supercase It was one of the main strategies for take pressure from the dollar after BCRA will stop offering Fiscal Liquidity Letters (LEFI) in mid -July. “The rate ceased to be an effective anchor, and the market folds towards more defensive positions“said the financial analyst of CEPEC.
“The market is not seeing positive panorama, in this context, investors go equal to the dollar, although they are offered Super positive rates, above inflation“said Glustein.
For its part, Lorena Giorno, of Balances He stressed: “Starting to test how much confidence has the market to the scheme of exchange bands. If you think the roof remains at least to the elections, the rational is to sell dollar and stay in pesos making Carry.”
This works if the market continues to trust that there will be this same exchange scheme, where on the ceiling of the band the BCRA can intervene and lower the currency. Now, what is happening in the City is currently the opposite, with “disagreeing” expectations, investors turn to the dollar and avoid high interest rates.
By consulting the possibility of a scheme change, Glustein affirmed: “I don’t think you can see an economic policy change, but a complex situation is observed”.
Such is so, that “December futures contracts exceeded Thursday the band’s roof“said the specialist. The market “Price” a wholesale exchange rate to $ 1,528, While the roof of the band in that month is located in $ 1,526.
In recent weeks, the “Rofex” was heavily demandedto the point that the Central Bank (BCRA) intervened with around some U $ 2,700 million In the short positions of July and some U $ 4,630 million In total contracts, according to market sources.
Dollar jump: offer shortage and growing pre -election coverage
The exchange market records a high demand for currency before the growing search for coverage, as well as a drop in the offer, the product of the minor settlements of the agriculture after the full reimposition of retentions -which now were permanently cut again.
By stopping functioning as an effective anchor, the market is turned to “Coverage in futures, repo operations and pressure on financial dollars, which realize that trust is far from consolidating”Anzalone remarked.
In turn, Gustavo Quintana, of PR change operators, He stressed that “Treasury purchases partly reduced the offer in the market, added to the completion of the large sales process of the agro -export sector”.
In that line, Andrés Reschini, of F2 financial solutions, He added that “It will be key that the passage at prices is as limited as possible”. “We will have to see next month if agriculture increases the rhythm of liquidations or not, the electoral perspectives for September in the province of Buenos Aires and October that can influence market humor,” he completed.
“In the medium term, the sustainability of the exchange scheme will depend on a clear improvement in market expectations”Anzalone summarized.
Source: Ambito
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