What is said at the tables: annoyance with the libertarian gurús, the “Cositoto” and the “Chapulín” of the dollar

A bipolar climate is perceived. On the one hand, Surveys, above all, official and pseudoficialist, realize that the image of the government remains stable at high levels for this height of the managementbut, on the other hand, The market, also cracked, although more inclined towards the cautious side, manifests a certain boredomnot only with those promoted “Gurúes” transvestite of libertarian fans and capitalistsor simply informal spokesmen, who had been blaming that people sell their dollars, but also with the “toto”, whom they renamed “Cositoto” in reference to the creator of Zoe Generation, by How is intervening, mainly, in the dollar futures, raffling positions sold. For many, the excuse of the promoters that people detach from their dollars, is that, according to the famous Chapulín Colorado, “They did not have the cunning” of Minister Caputoor rather, they bet that it would not stumble with the same stone.

A well -known sub45 economist summarized in front of customers who “Something went wrong”referring to recent turbulence after the disarmament of Lefis. It is undoubted. And in that the economic team is focused, in solving the inappropriate mistake of the end of the Lefis. Of course, nobility obliges, the “toto” said it without tapujos, “Buy champion, don’t miss it!” In this context, the last days were very enriching in the counterpoints among mesadinerists, and especially in virtual meetings with people of Wall Street, dedicated to emerging markets, and many conclusions can be taken out, or more, well, several clues were thrown into the debates.

The “momentum”, two questions and the possible scenarios

Two of the most accurate economists in the square crossed swords on the “Momentum” In a financial zoom and highlighted that three months after the program came the IMF notice of the arrival to a “Staff Level Agreement” that opened the door for the Board to unlock the outlay of the two thousand green sticks, everything is summarized in two questions: How to reach the October 26 electionswith the elections in Buenos Aires halfway, And how he continues later, even assuming a favorable result to the government. The first question will find an answer in the decision of the BCRA of straightening the mess caused by the disarmament of the Lefis and its impact on the volatility of the fees and on the financial program of the Treasury.

As for the second question, two scenarios openafter the elections: The Government continues to point to the deflationary adjustment with its consequences and the risk of not getting comfortable to 2027, or tries to recalibrate the band scheme giving a clear sign of accumulation of reserves to a higher exchange rate. Today the market operates discounting a discreet jump in November.

After cardboard, the meeting continued with a “Call Conference” of figurine exchange on a virtual event of the EMTA in which they analyzed the ramifications of the latest Trump tariff announcements about emerging market companies, the appetite of investors for papers in euros, the prospects for emerging oil companies, and The specific approach in Argentine and Colombian corporate bonds. Some of the themes reviewed in the meeting were Vestel, Braskem and New World Development and the perspectives of the second semester of 2025 for emerging corporate bonds. They were from the game Natalia Corfield (JPMorgan), Sid Dahiya (Aberdeen), Ezequiel Fernandez (Balanz), Anne Milne (Bofa) and Yulia Di Mambro (Federated Hermes), among others.

All this puts a price to the dollar

But, perhaps, one of the most interesting meetings was the one starring former officials, several of them performing on Wall Street, academics, analysts and managers specialized in emerging. “At the time of bifes,” none doubt, fiscal discipline is the non -negotiable anchor. They explained, from the big block, that Today the market awards the sovereign bonds of Argentina a 5 -year default probability from 42% to 45%. So you cannot access the international capital market. They are clear that From the post -election scenario, it will not come out with a large decline in the country risk, so the Government must get to work back in the legs, monetary/exchange, fiscal/financing and structural reforms. Today Come a mix of inconsistent macro policies. In this sense, more fiscal rigidity and more monetary flexibility expect. They celebrate everything that was done here, but otherwise the plan is “aggiorn”, there will be more doubts about sustainability. All this puts a price to the dollar.

The issue of Lefis considered that not only was it not time for disarmament, but it was not necessary and was poorly explained and done. There was a lot of talked about the tax issue and how much it is necessary to add to the surplus to reassure the waters of the market. 1% PBI is estimated more in 2026, with a Mix of chainsaw and trimming of economic subsidies. For the counterpoint Between managers and investment bankers, there is some crack: Some argue that a country risk of 500 basic points (something like a 9% IRR) would be the access door to volunteer debt markets, while others speak of a 10.5% IRR that would allow to place small emissions of about a thousand average sticks, no more, but would pave the road. The truth is that, according to the managers, several of them legendary experts of the Argentine case, What matters is the signal that the government gives after the elections (In addition to several scenarios according to the results).

JP Morgan

The JP Morgan now publishes pro-argentine reports.

Depositphotos

“Wait & see” despite JP Morgan

International investment funds operating in emerging ones are in a “wait & see”, no matter how much the JP Morgan now publishes pro-Argentine reportsafter calling for withdrawal of the “Carry”! days ago. These investors, already with Argentine holdings, instead of thinking of increasing them today they say that if they do not see that the government accompanies what is coming, after October, with additional measures will be an exit opportunity. Clearer, wore water.

At the local level, the designation of Eduardo Flores was commented to lead the Private Banking business of Santander. On the “Carry Trade”, in another meeting, more reserved, it was said that as things are, there are still carrots in the short as a future of August and a similar lecap with approximately 15% returns, but better to pay attention to JP Morgan and dollarize, they do not see attractive beyond November, even in a context of high rates. The debt maturity schedule was shown in pesos and are chilling numbers but the waters, more than $ 36 billion and another $ 20 billion in September, in the previous electoral. In what they agreed, it was an unexpected July, nobody thought it was going to be as tumultuous as it was, above, sowing doubts about the short -term direction. On the issue of Lefis, a fact: as they estimate there are even more than $ 1.5 billion of liquidity without destination, because approximately between $ 6 and $ 7 billion went to lace and the same to LECAP.