Portfolios in electoral mode: pesos for the “carry” and dollars for the shelter in bonds, ONS and yield

On September 7, the legislative elections in the province of Buenos Aires, where 23 benches will be renewed in the Senate and 46 in deputies. Although at first its impact on markets was underestimated, the truth is that the province represents one of the Key political bastions of the country And the results will have a considerable weight in the perception of the ruling party for October.

For freedom, the main political risk is not so much a defeat, but rather the concept of “losing even winning”, which would be to win although in a tight way. In this context, Investment portfolios begin to reconfigure in this second half of the year, with a growing expectation that the ruling is imposed in October and acts as a new catalyst for Argentine assets.

The market after the lefis exit: in search of anchoring expectations

This week, debt tender left important signals for investors who evaluate changes in their portfolios. Elena Alonso, co -founder of Emerald Capital, said in a dialogue that the Government seeks Maintain expectation about the exchange rate and that people invest in pesos And that the big funds and the banks are also there, “he explained in dialogue with scope.

According to Alonso, current rates generate a “very high opportunity cost” to dollarize. Its suggested strategy is clear: “Take advantage of rates in pesos in the short term and think the long term in dollars.” Among the aforementioned alternatives, recommend negotiable obligations, BCRA bonds, sovereign and yield titles to diversify Argentine risk.

The “Carry Trade” is still an opportunity

Gustavo Neffa Research For Traders, Along the same lines as Alonso, he pointed out that a little higher interest rates will play in favor of the government “so that the dollar is not reheated anymore“, Therefore, he estimated that these will remain at high levels.” The dollar is above the middle zone of the flotation band, which is within expected. I think it has space to lower the dollar a little, but there is some steps above the portfolios are going to dollarize a little more. We are suggesting dollarizing, but not much, because the Carry has a good livelihood behind, “he said.

In the recommendation of Reseach For Traders the following assets are found:

• Sovereign bonds in dollars: Bonar 4.125% 2035 (AL35 and AL35D) and Bonar 5% 2038 (AE38 and AE38D). And the Bopreal 5% 2027 (BPOC7 and BPC7D) and BOPREALES 3% 2026 (BPY26 and BPy6D).
• Sovereign bonds in fixed rate pesos: LECAPS S29G5, S30S5 and BANCAP T15D5.
• Dual bonds: They recommend the Dual Bonus TTS26.
• Provincial bonds: Mendoza 5.75% 2029 (PM29D) and Neuquén 5.75% 2030 (NDT5D). To buy abroad at the OTC market: City of Buenos Aires 7.5% 2027, province of Santa Fe 6.9% 2027, province of Chubut 7.75% 2030 (c/Petroleras royalties) and Neuquén 5.0% 2030 province (c/oil royalties).
• Provincial bonds in pesos: City of Buenos Aires at Badlar rate 2028 (BDC28).
• To the corporate bond strategy, they incorporated the ON of Pampa Energía 2034.

Is there a opportunity in subsoberan bonds?

From ADCAP Financial Group They continue to recommend the Global 2035, highlighting that their estimated performance between 8.2% (such as El Salvador) and 9.5% (Egypt Case), with a potential return of 18%. The good bonds of the province of Buenos Aires also add to the strategy. “They should continue to stand out as high -performance instruments, since the spread remains stable at 247 basic points on sovereigns. The province’s trust index is consistent with a strong electoral performance of Lla in the next elections, in line with almost 40% of voting intention,” they said.

For more conservative profiles, the BANCAP T15D5 stand out, which expires in December and offers an implicit rate of $ 1,426 by the end of the year, with an 8% and potential yield of up to 15% if the weight is strengthened.

As a longer term alternative, they propose the TZXD6 bonce (December 2026), with a real rate of 15% and estimated returns of between 7% and 17%, with sovereign exposure.

Finally, for the equity side, the positioning for the legislative elections in both PBA and national “will depend a lot on their risk aversion,” he explained José Ignacio Thome, SBS Equity analyst. In that sense, he pointed out that for those who have a “more conservative” bias despite the active class, they recommend positioning themselves in the material sector (Txar and Alua). “In addition to having safety margin due to their current quotes for nothing demanding, historically they have been a market coverage vehicle in the face of Volatility in the FX,” he explained.

For those with greater risk aversion (and that have as a base scenario a solid triumph of the ruling), The play is in the banking sector. “This sector is not only the one that has the greatest liquidity and quantity of ADRS contributing in New York but also is the one with the greatest sensitivity to changes in the country risk, so the sector is undoubtedly We will see greater euphoria in case of a better result than the predicted by the market to lla. Within the Sector Our Top Pick is Ggal (Grupo Financiero Galicia) since it has comparative advantages after the absorption of HSBC Argentina, while we also see with good eyes the offensive strategy of BBAR (BBVA) in search of capturing major Market Share during the last year, “he contributed.

Cryptocurrency opportunities?

For even more risky investors, Santos Barrio – Co founder of LB Finance contributed that Bitcoin is long -term coverage against the loss of dollar hegemony worldwide. “BTC is an asset with a fixed and predetermined issuance (similar to gold) that more and more investors take as a refuge currency. This can be seen in how its price reacts to the increase of the global M2 (amount of dollars circulating in the world): the more money there is, better BTC. that BTC is a very volatile asset and Only those who have a high risk tolerance should buy it, “he warned.

Wallet reboils, after the closure of an July marked by volatility

Finally, Melina Di Napoli, product analyst Wealth Management in Balanz, said the portfolios have a disparate dynamic. “On the one hand, retails increased their exposure to the dollar in the electoral prelude. This behavior is explained by greater risk aversion. However, unlike other occasions, the current exchange regime operates with flotation bands -which means that it is free of intervention within them -, Although the Argentine saver mindset is still strongly conditioned by past events “.

“Once surpluses are dollarized, we observe a growing demand for corporate bonds with aaa rating on local scale, such as those emitted by Pampa Energía, YPF, Pluspetrol and Pan American Energy, among others. These instruments are attractive by combining low credit risk with dollars around 7-8% per year“He concluded.