Dollar and reservations: What does the small print of the agreement with the IMF say

With a wink to fiscal adjustment and a reduction in international reserves goals, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved the last review of the Argentine program. The Government of Javier Milei will thus receive a new disbursement of US $ 2,000, despite technical breaches, and gained air until 2027. Less short -term pressure, but more structural demands.

The technical report that the IMF staff raised to the board confirmed what the Minister of Economy had already anticipated, Luis Caputo: Argentina did not meet the goal of accumulation of reservesbut got a Waiver (technical forgiveness) and, in addition, A relaxation in future objectives that gives the government greater margin to sustain its economic program without an abrupt exchange jump.

The net international reserves goal (RIN) by December 2025 was significantly reduced. According to the new schedule, Argentina is expected a net accumulation of only US $ 5.6 billionwhich implies a reduction of US $ 5,000 million compared to the original goal.

This relief will be replicated in subsequent reviews: U $ 4,000 million less for the first half of 2026 and other US $ 2,000 million for the second semester. The ultimate goal is maintained: reaching US $ 22,900 million RIN for December 2027, although the bulk of the effort will be concentrated only in the last stretch of the program.

Market interventions: under supervision

The IMF also put the magnifying glass on exchange policy. He clarified that The interventions of the central bank in the dollar futures market must be exceptional and only justified by “messy conditions.” They should not replace conventional monetary policy or alter the exchange rate signal.

However, he acknowledged that at this transition stage, bounded interventions will be needed, while the financial system adapts to the new monetary framework and the development of the interbank market is deepened.

When referring to the financial system, the agreement indicates that the flotation policy between bands for the dollar will continue, and urges the Government to accumulate reservations but, as stated, with a more flexible goal and pointing out to enter for access to international markets. He maintains that he expects the BCRA to develop a more active role in that purpose.

The IMF also celebrated the Government’s decision on the Lefi and the change in the lace of the banks. On the other hand, it endorsed the continuity of the exchange restrictions that still remain of the stocks, although it recommended to direct its total elimination.

More time, same plan: fiscal adjustment and monetary discipline

The IMF also endorsed the Primary fiscal surplus objective of 1.6% of GDP for 2025more ambitious than 1.3% originally raised. According to the fund, this result will be held in greater public spending controlsespecially in social areas: Disability pensions, AUH and other subsidies must go through more strict “eligibility controls”.

In parallel, the agency urged any “new spending initiative without financing,” warning that a Real Primary Expenditure of 7% In 2025. In other words, the message is clear: Adjustment, but without fiscal populism.

Concern for current account and imports

One of the IMF alert spotlights was the external front. The current account, which had closed 2024 with surplus, returned to negative field In 2025. The reason, according to the report, is in the strong recovery of internal consumption and the flexibility of import restrictionswhich increased the departure of dollars.

Faced with this scenario, the IMF considers that a higher exchange rate could help correct the imbalance: imports and improve export competitiveness. In fact, the official dollar already operates closer to the ceiling of the flotation band than from the floor, which could anticipate a greater rearrangement in the second semester.

Medium -term perspectives: energy, mining and private debt

Despite the short -term challenging panorama, the IMF maintains an optimistic vision for 2026 and 2027. expects the accumulation of reservations is accelerated Thanks to higher income from private capital, sustained access to external financing and the growth of energy and mining exports, driven by the Rigi incentive regime.

It also foresees a greater Private sector indebtednessthat part of a very low base after years of financial stock and distrust of the market. With these elements, the background is committed to the program arriving in port in December 2027, although not without risks.

The background wink allows Milei’s government navigate the coming months without a exchange rate in sight. But the path is still narrow. With more lax goals, but more tax and structural demands, The renewed agreement with the IMF does not mean a blank checkbut a window to sustain the adjustment plan, accelerate reforms and convince markets that this time is serious.