Do you return to the “Carry Trade”? What to do with the weights against a dollar closer to the “band roof”

The strategy would consist of Sell dollars at the highest possible pricebetting on a decrease in the exchange rate, and Place the capital in financial instruments in pesos that allow “making rate”what would result in large earnings in hard currency if the dollar effectively falls.

The “Carry Trade” gains attractive after the increase of the dollar

“A strategy could be given, perhaps short -term in pesos, through the acquisition of Lecaps or bonds indexed by inflation. It would be to take advantage of the rates in pesos that can be attractive in the market, taking into account that the dollar of one more push and reaches the roof of the band in the $ 1,450 Dark.

“In the midst of a panorama where the last tender awarded rates of more than 65% TNA in the primary market, to dry the square and cushion the purchase of dollars, this type of reward could be expected that allows a` carry trade `speculative. That is, suitable for inverter daring profiles, and grant them profits in juicy dollars, as long as much attention to the ‘timin Departure from these operations, ”he added.

For its part, Matías Dagheropresident of Closing Bell Advisors, he also talked about the benefits of “Carry Trade”, in this case with Lecaps. However, he clarified that this strategy is Optimal for risky profiles That they are willing to lose money, since, if the dollar does not lower or rises, earnings in pesos could be completely eroded.

“It is a tool that must occupy a small portion of the portfolio, which would be a part that seeks to make a more aggressive strategy around a dollar stability and give a good rate, for those who have a more aggressive profile,” he said.

And he finished: “These dollar levels are already approaching the top of the band, and, if the government respects it, there are a large part of the Lecaps that are giving you a positive return in dollars. But, again, that only with a part of the portfolio and for aggressive profiles.”

WARNING FOR THE LOSS OF TRUST IN THE OFFICIAL WORD

In any case, not all market participants believe it is a good time to take advantage of this strategy, mainly for a Loss of confidence in the government’s word.

“Trust is the most important asset that the government has, and if they say that they will be ‘A’ and then they make ‘B’, that trust is eroded. For worse, when the market sees that you are artificially stepping on the price, you squeeze you until you get the most dollars you can, because you understand that the price is cheaper than it should be, precisely because of the intervention they are doing,” he said Miguel Braunfinancial advisor in Fox Capital.

The expert does not believe that a total stress scenario is reached where the dollar reaches the roof of the band and the government does not have tools to lower it, but that has been intervening ahead of time changes the rules of the game.

“The mere fact that they are breaking with what they said they were going to do gives me a tremendous distrust. A pity because they came barbaric, but they went to intervene and went very badly. As now I don’t know if they are going to comply with what they say, I do not recommend doing `Carry Trade´. I prefer to invest in productive assets and avoid depositing my confidence in public officials that intervene arbitrarily in the markets, ”said Braun.