The last week of July was marked by the increase of the dollar and the volatility of rates, which climbed up to 65% TNA, while the City Avizora a new balance with impact on the activity.
In the last week of Julythe volatility of rates and the jump of the dollar were the protagonists. In the tender of the debt in pesos last Tuesday, the treasure validated rates of up to 65% TNA and Central Bank (BCRA) He “set the court” again through the Passive passes. But high yields failed to stop the price of dollar, that he shot despite the interventions Officers in the Future Square. Thus, from the City They talk about the search for a “New balance”already with nominally higher rates levels. The counter can be seen short -term, with A brake on the activity if these values arrive to stay.
From Empiria, They illustrated with data The volatility of interest rates, which was developed in recent weeks. Thus, they recalled that the average rate of Lecaps It went from 35% TNA on Friday, July 22, to 45% TNA after the tender on Tuesday 29 of the Treasury (48% TNA pondering for an amount placed), which later compressed in the secondary market (but above the closing of the previous week). For its part, the rate of passes to one day moved from 37% TNA to exceed 40% after the appearance of the Central Bank.
“The strong rise in rates in pesos failed to contain the evolution of the exchange rate, which It went from $ 1,277 to $ 1,351 (+5.8%) and closing Thursday’s wheel operating around $ 1,360. So, The July exchange rate averaged $ 1,267 (+7.3% versus average June) And, at the end of the month, it rose 13% compared to June 30. The intervention in the futures market was constant and the BCRA, one day of the expiration, offered dollars to an exchange rate less than the spot, “they highlighted from the same report, regarding the pressure that was exerted on the exchange rate this week.
Bid: higher rates but less liquidity
“In this week’s tender the economic team made it clear that it did not plan to inject liquidity so that the rates in compressed pesos”analyzed from Facimex and recalled the words of the Secretary of Finance, Pablo Quirno, who indicated that they are not going to “Liberate liquidity to lower the rates”. The cost of not injecting liquidity was to validate too high rates, they remembered the same report.
“Seeking to maximize monetary absorption, the treasure awarded almost all offers. The October 2026 (Tzxo6) bonce cutting rate in CER+16.2% was a record for a bancer and the average cutting rate weighted per amount issued for LECAPS was 60.8% TEA; The highest since July last year, when inflation was navigating 65% m/m annualized, “they expanded from Facimex.
It should be remembered that finally The government placed debt for $ 9 billion, when it faced maturities for $ 11.8 billion, but the liquidity injection was practically nil since the banks had to integrate additional lace for $ 2.6 billion. The Central Bank confirmed that the Board of Monetary Authority had a rise in bank lace up to 40% as of Friday, August 1.
Upload the dollar, there are no “pass Through”, but the activity worries
An advance in the official exchange rate could be quickly moved at prices and raise inflation, but it would not seem to be the scenario that has the current situation. “Perhaps the best news of the last month is that internal prices do not register- at least for now- an acceleration, despite pronounced exchange slidingso the actual multilateral exchange rate managed to place 6% above the level of June and equivalent to the level of May 2024, “they explained from Empiria.
Thus, they also detailed it from SBS group: “High frequency data show, for the moment, a very low transfer at prices of the dollar’s rise from mid -June to today. Regarding the exchange rate, interest rates in pesos will be a key instrument to contain pressures, although The effects of the high real rate on activity, tax collection and financial cost of the Treasury should be considered in the medium term. “
According to this same report, The level of real rates in recent months hits the activity and said that it is the main factor behind the stagnation that has been perceived for a quarter. “The real rates and the effect on private credit, together with factors such as the degree of uncertainty, inflation dynamics, dollars will be key to the dynamics of the activity, “they said from Grupo SBS.
Source: Ambito
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