After the exchange volatility that was experienced in July, the Central Bank Director (BCRA), Federico Furiase, went out to explain the reasons why the recent rise of the dollar It will not move to prices. In dialogue with Radio Rivadavia, the official remarked that “the dollar floats, but the solid macro prevents the transfer at prices,” and defended the government’s economic strategy.
As furies, The current managed flotation regime, With exchange bands that adjust a monthly 1%, added to an orderly macroeconomy, it allows absorbing shocks without affecting the disinflation trend. “The dollar floats between bands, and the important thing is that just as it goes up, it can go down,” he explained, adding that the pattern was already observed in previous episodes without inflation being unleashed.
Why did the dollar uploaded, according to Furia
The economist identified a series of factors behind the recent rise of the exchange rate. He mentioned the typical pre -election behavior, where companies and individuals tend to dollarize, and the purchase of currencies by the treasure. “About 1.5 billion dollars accumulated after the last review with the IMF,” he said, alluding to the recent disbursement of the agency.
However, Furiase insisted that macroeconomic anchor acts as a containment. “We have fiscal surplus, there is no monetary issuance and the BCRA is capitalized. That makes a difference,” he said.
Furiase put the focus on a cultural change among economic agents. “Before, companies adjusted prices for doubts. Today, with a solid BCRA, uploading prices for no reason leaves you out of the market,” he said. He pointed out that, even with the dollar rise, the downward trend is maintained in prices and that in some areas there are already reductions.
IMF, Reservations and Debt
Regarding the flexibility of goals from the International Monetary Fund, the official said that the reduction of US $ 5,000 million of the reserves of accumulation goal It makes the program “more compatible with economic reality.” Within that framework, he stressed that the current management already bought more than 25,000 million dollars in 18 months, although he acknowledged that a large part of these reservations was destined to pay debt maturities.
“That prevents a greater accumulation, but allowed to strengthen the balance of the central and advance in its recapitalization,” he explained.
Interest rates and anti -inflationary strategy
Accessed by the increase in rates, Furiase explained that in the new scheme “they are endogenous”, that is, the market determines them. “After the disarmament of Leliqs and political noise, the BCRA acted quickly to remove weights of circulation and avoid surpluses of liquidity,” he said, in line with the aim of sustaining disinflation.
In the future, he considered that the rates will go down as confidence is consolidated and structural conditions for investment are confused.
As for the social level, Furiase said that stability allowed us to reduce poverty in about 12 million people in the last year and a half. He also stressed that registered private salaries and retirement grew 15 points since December, and that credit to the private sector went from representing 3.5 points from the GDP to 9 points.
“Growth is also seen in fiscal returns: more than two points of the product in tax decline, country tax cut and permanent retentions reduction,” he concluded.
Although he admitted pending challenges, such as rates sincer, the director of the BCRA said that the chosen path is giving results. “The healthy macro is not just a matter of forms: it is what allows silver to give people more,” ended.
Source: Ambito
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