Reservations: how the IMI’s decision to relax a key program of the program received the market

He International Monetary Fund (IMF) Confirmed last week the approval of the first review of the program and the release of the disbursement of US $ 2,000 million. However, two relevant changes were introduced: on the one hand, a downward review of the accumulation goals of net reserves and, on the other, the decision that inspections become semiannual instead of quarterly. In this way, the Government will need US $ 5,000 million to meet the objective of reserves, although the long -term objective remains intact.

“Despite this adjustment, the report highlights recent actions of the Treasury to reinforce reservations, including access to the market through the issuance of Bonte 30 and purchases in block of dollarsmostly from corporate debt emissions, “they explained since Max Capital, also remarking that The IMF asked for a “more active” role of the BCRA to treasure currenciespotentially through A foreseeable intervention schemesomething that the authorities still did not confirm.

It should be noted that in the last week, the BCRA reserves rose at US $ 747 million and closed with a gross stock of US $ 41,030 million, while Net reserves were left with a negative balance of US $ 8,000 million. “The weekly improvement responded exclusively to the entrance of a bid loan for US $ 1,200 millionpartially compensated by debt payments and the reduction of lace in foreign currency, in a context in which the treasure did not make currency purchases in the market, “they added from Cohen.

Now that 2025 closes with a negative balance of US $ 2,600 million and from this same broker they assured that despite the relaxation the “Objective that continues to be demanding given the current dynamics.”

“By the end of 2025, the reservations accumulation target was established at -U $ S1 billion, adjusted from +U $ S5.5 billion in the original agreement. According to our calculations, net reserves valued under the EFF methodology should be increased by an estimated US $ 385 million until the end of the year. Beyond the very short term adjustment, the original program of the program is expected to be reached by the end of 2027, “they added from PPI.

Reservations: The impact on the change market on the accumulation goal

In dialogue with Scope, Rafael di Giorno, of Professionexplained: “The bad market will not take it, although it likes to accumulate reservations. Any gesture that gives the background accompanies the Argentine government for the fulfillment of goals. The worst thing can happen is not to fulfill them and have to suffer a lot. That the fund has tolerance, it is a good sign, but, I reiterate, the market wants to be reservations. “

For its part, the economist Juan Ignacio Banoalso in talk with this medium, he confirmed that this news has a neutral impact, because if today the dynamics of the dollar bonds are seen, the short part of the curve rises slightly, while the long one goes down a bit. “So the market response already has it and it happened without sorrow and without glory”he said.

“From my point of view, the goal was not fulfilled but there are still “waivers” and everything remains the same as if it had been fulfilled, so the truth is that it is not so valuable either. The important thing was what was already done, the agreement, and the magnitude of the disbursement, the most important thing is precisely to maintain the fiscal surplus since for the new review there are six months left, “added Bano.

For its part, from the Center for Political and Economic Studies (CEPEC) They said: “The approval reflects The tension between technical rigor and political terms: While the IMF praises the fiscal surplus, it warns that net reserves (-u $ S4.7 billion in June) located US $ 3,600 million below the goal. Value fiscal compliance and the solidity of the adjustment, but warns about the risks derived from the electoral calendar“

With respect to the “waiver”, from CEPEC they believe that “although technically justified, it is not less: it feels a precedent on the IMF’s disposition to negotiate breeding goals.” “If the government gets used to these flexibility, markets could begin to discount that the commitment to adjustment is superficial, especially in an electoral year”they alerted.