The market has been speculating with the position sold for central futures contracts since turbulence began in the middle of the year. With a certain informative lag, the monetary entity was confirming the tenor of its position sold. The fund report shed some light about it.
The “Staff Report” of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) not only brought information about the international reserves of the Central Bank (BCRA) and the linked goals, but also Some light on the action of the operating table of the monetary entity in the exchange markets, especially in the dollar futures.
On the one hand, among the great novelties of the agreement with the IMF, the notable relaxation of reservation goals, that become much more attainable than those of the original program, and The elimination of the third quarter reviewthat would have been in a couple of months, which will differ the next disbursement, but since it is just US $ 1 billion it is not so relevant. Also the 2026 reservations goals were adjusted to gradually converge to the original values of the program at the end of 2027. So that from here at the end of the year, net reserves should be increased by about US $ 3,500 million.
As for the speculations and comments linked to the possibility that the BCRA begins to have a more active role in the accumulation of reserves, for example with a pre -established purchase rhythm, It is worth noting what appears on page 21 of the Staff Report: “The Central Bank is expected to play a more active role in the process of accumulation of reserves, including the purchase of currencies through a predictable calendar (as is done in Chile, Colombia and Mexico, in the context of their respective flexible exchange regimes).” In this regard, according to private estimates, the Government would still lack about US $ 6,000 million to close the year and comply, so that The BCRA could go to the market of changes with daily purchases of about US $ 30 million to the end of the year which would allow it to be done about US $ 3,000 million.
Another goal that was adjusted was that linked to net internal assets, defined as the growth of the monetary base minus the accumulation of reserves, which had been breached (because the remumination in pesos exceeded the rhythm of accumulation of currencies more than anticipated) was also redefined in tune with the cut of the net reserve goal.
Some light on futures contracts
Now, With respect to dollar futures, in the market they suspect that the compression of implicit rates and the expansion of open interest (AI) suggest that the BCRA maintains its presence in that market. In relation to this topic, there is a note to the foot of page 10 of the “Staff Report” where the IMF says that the position sold of the BCRA became US $ 5,000 million: “The open net position of the BCRA in the NDF market (Non-Deliverable Forward) has promoted approximately US $ 5,000 million. Liquidated in pesos, these positions do not represent a direct risk for international reserves, and possible losses in the central bank’s balance crisis periods. ” Therefore, considering that it is a fact prior to the expiration of the July contract, the consultant 1816 estimates that the BCRA must now be “short” (sold) at approximately US $ 3,700 million. If so, the BCRA would have almost doubled its position in relation to the previous month, reaching the greatest position sold in the dollar futures of the Milei era.
It should be noted that the Fund speaks in the report of “temporary and limited interventions to situations of disorder in the market.”
Source: Ambito
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