Last Friday the wholesale dollar closed with a weekly increase of 6.5%, which motivated, among other things, that the BCRA decided that as of August 1 would govern a minimum lace of 40% for The deposits in view and an option of early cancellation, the common investment funds of Money Market and the stock marketing cion. In addition, for current accounts or accounts in sight, the minimum cash requirement rose from 36% to 40%.
In parallel, according to consulting firm 1816, The Central Bank also decided on the same date to stop being a policyholder in the Repo wheelas I was doing. “Between July 15 and August 4 (last available data), the central was a maker at 8 of the 15 wheels,” they said from this report and said it is “The intermittent presence of the central in the rates market at 1 day in this regime.”
The underline of 1816 is due to the fact that In “Theory” in this scheme the rate should be endogenousthat is, defined by the market itself, something that still does not end at all. From this consultant they also claimed that There is no monetary goal of daily frequency (at least of public knowledge) that explains At what time the central considers that the liquidity of the system is excessive and must operate to remove a certain amount.
Precisely the issue of liquidity in the system was in the mouth of analysts and operators this week. The scarcity of pesos raised the rates of the curve in local currency, which were not yet achieved after the exit of the Lefis. Inla City say that “Now it will be the banks themselves who put floor at short rates during August”depending on your need to comply with greater lace.
Less liquidity and higher rates: how did the market take it?
“The lack of liquidity is much noticeableeven if you look The rates paid by banks for fixed term are well above the annual inflation estimates. Some banks pay up to 40% and projected inflation could be at 25% levels, “he told Scopethe financial analyst Leonardo Svirskyadding: “The reality is that rates should be accommodated, all this is abnormal and I think no one is accustomed.”
As for the tenders that the treasure performs, he said that the fact of “that is a little more the liquidity of the market”, and that “If you do not renew all maturities, they are weights that come to the market and that produce these fluctuations that we have been seeing several days ago.”
In turn Nicolás CappellaSales Trader of Grupo IEB, also referred to this topic: “The caution that had ended very tomatoes on Wednesday, was on Thursday again. The lace rise is beginning to take effect and the weights are scarce. We believe that we can have some higher rates until the expiration of the S15G5. In addition to this, There is a lot of trace armed with short Lecap, which generates an extra demand. ”
In fact, on this last point, There are operators who warn that there is a risk of “barefoot”. “The banks were taking up around 56% (without BCRA intervention). Therefore, it is clear that there is a missing liquidity, which is being remedied taking repo or taking hiperity (but the bond for banks also has lace, so they find it more expensive than the repo) or selling titles in pesos or dollars to take pesos, “Cappella said.
For this expert, this will last until “reaching the expiration of the S15G5 where again the banks can make the liquidity they need and the system slowly return to normal.”
Rates and liquidity: what will the dynamics be like the elections
Gustavo GardeyCo-Founder of the financial consultant Bri, also in a talk with this medium, analyzed: “The Government chooses basically run from the rates market and allow an endogenous regulation as the power to control the amount of money is arrogated. The measures he took, as rises in lace, elimination of Lefi and repointed banks to a more rigorous management of liquidity. “
For this expert, what we are going to see these three months is Volatility of rates specifically determined by the greatest difficulty that banks have today to place surpluses. “The government will maintain its efforts focused on keeping weight as the scan currency and It will seek after the elections deregulate the monetary system in such a way that the endogenous re -delighting via the supply of dollars is possible“, broad.
Finally, he specified that, for this stage to happen, it is necessary “An electoral triumph that collapses the country risk to the area of the 500 basic points or less, which would allow an acceleration of this process.”
Source: Ambito
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