After the jump of the dollar in July, the market provides that the government maintain the currency under control in the final stretch towards legislative elections that are outlined as decisive.
The great unknown that the market is raised in these weeks is whether the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputomay sustain the stability of the dollar until after the legislative elections of the province of Buenos Aires on September 7. According to the last survey of market expectations (REM) of the Central Bank, the answer is that yes: There will be a “ironed” dollar to the electoral process, after the correction of July that led to the exchange rate from $ 1,230 to $ 1,337 at the end of Friday, But a new rise is not ruled out in the following months.
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The report, which includes projections of 41 of the main consultants and financial entities, shows a consensus around the official exchange rate will remain under control in the previous elections. However, the expectation is that, once the political panorama is clear, There will be a jump that would take it to $ 1,405 towards the end of the year, compared to a projected average of $ 1,315 for August.


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What does the REM say on the dollar in the legislative elections of PBA
Inflation and activity: stability in the short term, uncertainty towards the end of the year
In terms of prices, the REM expects the monthly inflation to be 1.8% in July and August, remaining below 2% per third consecutive month. For analysts, The recent dollar rise would not have an immediate impact on the CPI, although they warn that the transfer could be seen from September or October.
Economic activity, meanwhile, would show moderate growth: +0.8% in the second quarter against the first, +0.5% in the third – in full campaign – and a slight rebound to 0.6% in the room. The GDP would close 2025 with an annual increase of 5%.
The strategy of maintaining the dollar as “anchor” in the previous one of an electoral process is known in Argentine politics. The REM reflects that the market already discounts this pattern: calm exchange to Buenos Aires legislative and a posterior adjustment that would be mild towards the end of the year.
The Buenos Aires will choose on September 7, 23 provincial senators and 15 alternatesas well as 46 provincial deputies and 28 alternates. According to him Survey of market expectations (REM) Posted by the Central Bank, Analysts project an official dollar of $ 1,249 for Septemberjust in the month of the Buenos Aires election, and of $ 1,272 for Octoberwhen the national legislative elections will take place, provided for Sunday 26.
In those national elections, Argentines will choose 127 national deputies and 24 senatorsthus completing the partial renewal of the Congress planned by 2025.
Source: Ambito

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