The bond curve in pesos fails to stabilize and the shortest terms quote with strong yields. The market awaits Wednesday’s tender to see which rate validates the treasure.
CER bond performance shot hard in recent days, especially in the shortest sections, deepening the investment of the curve. Behind this movement, operators point to the slightest liquidity after the “desprolija” exit of the Lefis and the volatility of an “endogenous” rate that still fails to stabilize. Now, the focus of the market is put on the tender on Wednesday, key to see What level of rate validates the treasure.
A Inverted curve It implies that the shortest deadlines pay higher yields, while the longest deadlines offer lower rates: this, in general, represents an alarm signal. To put some examples, with data on Monday, the Tzxo5 (expiration to October 2025) yields inflation +26.1%, while the TZX26 (expiration to June 2026) yields inflation +19.3%, and finally if we take the TZX26 (Expiration 2027) yield inflation +14.8%.
For the analyst Daniel Osinaga, This situation is because “There is uncertainty about political risk,” But also “because There was a government error in trying to unlock the Lefis issue in this scenariobut as we saw in the conferences to Milei, he does not care about the political cost, he does what to do. If in October, the electoral risk is cleared, the curve in pesos and CER will return to normal“He projected to Scope.
In turn, Matthew Reschini, Head of Research of INVIUalso in dialogue with this medium, he analyzed this anomaly of the curve. “We have rates, the market continues to accommodate. Before, the Central Bank was present every day, setting fee, and ensuring operations. Now, for technical and customary issues of the Argentine market, it is adjusting: that causes all the rates, those of bank repo, those of Lecaps, which pushes you all the curves. “
For this expert, we are in “A river so scrambled that such definitive conclusions cannot be drawn by looking only at the peso curve.”
Expectation for the next tender of the Treasury
The Finance Secretariat communicated at the beginning of the week Menu of instruments of the tender to be held this Wednesdaywith liquidation on Monday 18. This includes the reopening of four Lecaps With deadlines between 25 and 84 days (S12S5, S30s5, S31O5 and S10N5), with a maximum amount to award from $ 3 to $ 4 billion in the two shorter sections. In addition, it will be offered A new Lecap expiring in January 2026 (S16E6) and the BCAPS February 2026 (T13F6).
They will also be tendered Tamar adjustable letters with maturities between November 2025 and February 2026 (M10N5, M16E6 and M13F6), together with the reopening of a title Dollar Linked to December (TZVD5) and a Bonce to October (Tzxo5). After the exchange of the BCRA of $ 7.8 billion from the S15G5 for the T15D5, the Treasury must face Mistrifications for almost $ 15 billion, over a total of $ 23.9 billion in August.
“The top in the shortest sections and the inclusion of instruments of greater term suggest that the Treasury would seek to extend ´Duration´ to relieve bulky maturities in the remainder of the year, which would force the lowest rates in the Lecaps short or migrate to longer instruments, “they said from Cohen financial allies.
For its part, Juan Manuel FrancoChief Economist of Grupo SBS, said in this regard: “The last wheels remained marked by upward pressure at short rates in pesos, a consequence of the increase in bank lace requirements in August, which reduced the liquidity of the system. In this context, The Treasury announced a tender in which the most short fixed rate titles have an emission limit, with the objective we believe not having to validate a rate as high as in previous tenders “.
He also warned that it will be key to follow not only the rate, but also the “rollover”, to measure how much liquidity conditions could change. That factor, he said, will have a direct impact on market rates and, in turn, on the dollar, that in the last wheels showed bear pressure driven by the rise in rates.
Source: Ambito
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