Banks stop credit in prior to elections for rates volatility and monetary squeery

The banks are going through frantic days And this Wednesday will be one of them. The Ministry of Economy will carry out one of the debt tenders that raised the greatest expectation. The market question is what level of rates the treasure will validate, after the LECAPS yields reached on Tuesday, annual nominal levels (TNA) and the caution at one day touched 80% TNA during the wheel. All this occurs in a context in which banks expect volatility scenarios at least until after the legislative elections And, given the lack of liquidity, They restrict credit.

In the last placements, the treasure validated a strong increase in rates, with the aim of channeling the liquidity that was “loose” after the disarmament of the Lefi and, thus, also avoid a greater pressure on the price of the dollar. However, the excessive shooting of the yields led to the Government to act more cautiously for this tender.

All this occurs in a context of tension between banks and the Central Bank due to the search for solutions to the lack of system liquidity. Before this auction, The BCRA decided to open a window to provide them pesos to banks that need it through the offer of active passes Against lyrics of more than 60 days that subscribe to the primary tenders of the Treasury, with the aim of putting a roof at interest rates. The banks continued to digest the news until the last hours of the day on Tuesday.

The already confirmed liquidity window would allow banks to access BCRA funds through active passes, presenting as a guarantee Treasury letters acquired in primary tenders more than two months. The scheme will finally not work with the Tamar + A Spread rate, but will be the average Weighing of the negotiated fees in the wheel repo until 17 hours a day, plus 2%. This change, regarding what was expected, would lower volatility but do not put “roof” at the fees.

Tomás Tagle, by Bull Market Brokers, He explained through his X account that the active pass serves as a roof for the bond and helps maintain the relatively endogenous rate. Taking as a reference the last tip data of 47.75%plus a 2%margin, the active pass would be 49.75%, establishing a reasonable limit for the bond around 28.7%. The tool seeks to cushion sudden rises of the rate towards the end of the wheel, since the banks know that they have that +2% at 17 hours. However, warns that this does not prevent the weighted average of the wheel from reaching higher levels, such as 60%, With a high bond, which can change market dynamics.

While the scenario remains open, Uncertainty continues to affect key variables such as weight value, the dollar and economic activity, on days of a key legislative election.

Banks stop credit before elections

The change in the economic program and the control of monetary aggregates led to excessive volatility in interest rates that increased financial cost Not only for treasure, but also For bank credit to companies and families.

This has already caused credit slowdown. Since mid -July the granting of loans stopped and companies also stopped their financing applicationsas confirmed by two frontline banks to Scope.

In the credit panorama there are several factors that play against:

– In July, loans in pesos to the private sector rose 3.7% real monthly, in line with what was shown in June, accumulating fifteen consecutive months of expansion, but below what is shown in 2024. It is worth remembering that in August 2024, the growth was in order of 10%.

– Crescent blackberry in personal loans and credit cards.

– An economic activity that goes back to February levels.

– Increase in business costs. On this last point, Pablo Moldavan, director of CP Consultor stated that the cost of short business financing doubled (43% to 84% ASD), and the credit via advances in current account fell 9%. “Over time, this is going to extend to other lines,” he added in his X account.

pesos

In this context, for the third quarter, banks expect a “more careful” liquidity. “Credit in pesos will grow at a higher rate than at the beginning of the year. In companies we are more selective by sector and guarantees. Oscillations of fees and exchange rate can be given but, if the macro gains donance and the regulatory framework is stabilized, credit should be gradually reactivated. In that context, the competence for deposits will remain high, so we will administer closely and prices, “they told Scope. For the sector, Credit reactivation could only come to a key volatility factor: legislative elections.

As for investments, the delineated scenario for the banking sector lights alert lights among those who bet on shares of banks that quote on the stock market. Although certain opportunities persist, the macroeconomic context could exert pressure on corporate balances and, consequently, Moderate the growth rate for the rest of the year.