They warn that the supercase can turn off the main economic reactivation engine

The bidding of debt in pesos on Wednesday did not give reasons for celebration to the government since, although a renewal of maturities below 100%was expected, the validated interest rates exceeded expectations. In the market they agree that This level of indebtedness can turn off the dynamism of credit for both companies and families, which was one of the engines that had been explaining economic reactivation in many sectors.

The treasure was able to renew only 61% of the $ 15 billion that overcome in the week. Despite the limited percentages, the data was not so surprising since the Ministry of Finance had put a stop for the shortest lecaps, with the aim of extending deadlines or increasing the liquidity of the financial system, in order to press a decline of fees.

However, The rates for the shortest titles placed in the day reached a high 69.2% in annual and effective terms. In dialogue with Scopethe economist Andrés Salinas He argued that, despite the fact that with the new monetary scheme the reference rate is determined by the market, the government “cannot let it continue to rise” if it intends that the economic growth engine is the private sector.

In that sense, he questioned that this rate of rates “makes it more expensive to produce, invest and even consume“And that” this will end up hitting probably activity, “which can generate a recessive scenario.

Credits for companies and families at risk

Along the same lines, the economist Amilcar Collantehe stressed the problem of these rates to sustain an economic recovery that had been supporting largely due to credit dynamics. “In companies it is clear how the advance stock began to fall in nominal terms because they do not want to validate interest rates that were above 80%, when at the beginning of all this they were around 35%.”

In addition, the specialist pointed out that this will also hit families. “Mortgages are already in grape +10%, there are some +11%, +12%“He explained.

All this occurs in a context in which Agreement wages are going according to the 1% monthly pattern that seeks to impose the government, when inflation is still above that threshold. Within that framework, Collante warns that surely towards the end of this month a brake in loans will be seen.

With a similar concern, from an important bank they told this medium that although the rise of rates contributes to reinforce the short -term financial stability, it also represents a growing cost for financing in local currency, at a time when economic activity still gives mixed signs and internal consumption continues moderate.

For its part, the financial advisor Nau Bernues He said that the consequences of this change in the monetary scheme represents a “hand brake and almost reverse” for the real economy. “If you have to make an investment today and you have the weights, you may take it for a month or two months because you start making rate in pesos and the investment is done later“He deepened.

“I think it is very counterproductive. The market is getting more and more nervous and it is time that the government also begins to take new measures, to change the speech or chip a little of what it had been doing. I also believe that much of the market is already missing the Lefi strongly,” added the specialist.

As for the surplus of weights that remained in circulation after the tender, the government went out to announce a new emergency placement for this Monday, August 18, which implies an increase in paid lace. The objective is to ensure that the liquidity of the banks is destined to finance the treasure.

Yesterday’s low rollover (60%, the second worst of 2025) is partly explained because the banks did not renew to integrate lace, while another part could also serve to increase liquidity and lower the rate. But with the announcement of a new tender for Monday, which would imply riting rise, that last idea loses strength.