The current scene seems scripted by the enemy. Much of what is being seen in recent weeks at financial and exchange level It was expected to see it a few weeks before Next elections. But at this point, generates much surprise and confusion. From before the end of last month, The face -to -face and virtual meetings between investors, advisors, consultants and clients intensified. It was something that is traditionally logical to see, for the intensity, later, when the traditional era of planning of the budgets of the companies begins. Recognize in meetings that reigns a kind of generalized mist cloak on where the market is directedand in particular, the tandem Caputo-Bausili.
An operator said that, for now, the pulse is winning the BCRA Seeing the screens of the dollar and spot futures. But, really, Those who lose are always the samethe men in the market recognize. They are always those who see the party from the outside, Like those things that are never reached, “the ñata against glass”I would say the great discépolo.
At these rates levels it is difficult to look at other options in the short termno matter how much the market considers them transitory, they pointed out in a “Call Conference”. For now, today the market dawns daily with Some other measure, window or out -of -age tender. They are moments for Evaluate the steps to followeven more than the siren songs of the “carry trade” obnubilen the investment decision making, He advised one of the last Dinosaurs of the City.
The truth is that, in general, no one predicts a major collapse A little more than two and a half months of the elections. To cape and sword the economic team will defend the inflationary decelerationthe rest, God will provide later. Moreover, Political analysts are contemplative about the result of the elections for the ruling partyeven the most related predict a positive balance.
Between passes, tenders and monetary squeery
An economist, former BCRA, explained at the table of a boutique manager who, in a new turn in the management of monetary policy, The BCRA reopened a daily liquidity window so that banks can park the surpluses at the end of each daySo lower the volatility of the short -term rate. But in parallel, The Treasury faced the tender with a look to renew maturities beyond the elections ($ 15 billion beat, one third of the base).
According to the head of the table, this looked something complicated because The market was needing liquidity. In the end, the Rollover It was from 64% ($ 9.1 billion) And all for October 26, and in this it had a lot to do The new passes operation. Because? As the expert said, because There was a short section with very little offer and the treasure had to validate prize so as not to leave surplus weights.
The final balance, for now, continues with the volatility of nominal rates and very high real rates. They stressed that The jump of the rates had a significant impact on everything that had some “duration”and alone The shortest section of Lecap avoided falling into negativewhile Inside the CER curve, the most affected was the middle and long section.
And the dollar?
In this regard, they commented that The BCRA maintained the strategy of intervening in those contracts in which the price was outside the roof of the projected bandalthough, anyway, They saw an increase in open interest in the months of more electoral candombe.
As for Sovereign “Hard Dollar”very aligned with the emerging ones, with the occasional prize in the short and medium sectionwhere The accumulation of currencies for the payment of January 2026 generates a relevant positive impact and does not affect both the eventual electoral noise that may appear in the coming weeks.
In the words of Arriazu, in Megaqm, dollars are not the problem. In one way or another, the government has the currencies to face the commitments, total All last governments did the samein reference to use The reservations of others. That’s why he warned that The succundum could be unleashed on the side of the mess of the peso money market.
From another table they lived this agitated week for the weights, after the monetary squeeze that is making the BCRA (Retroactive lace up to more than compensate for the expansion resulting from the last tender), highlighting that The increase in lace generated financial institutions equivalent to 4.1% of weight depositsthat’s why Banks had to go looking for an additional $ 6 billion to cover the minimum cash positions in the current BCRA account.
The reading they made was that the measure points to an electoral objective: contain the dollarand not to meet the monetary objectives established with the IMF. Yes ok The sweeping of weights helped reduce excess liquidityhad its logical correlation in the Up of interest rates and in rearm the Carry Trade With a downward dollar.
Because it was a table of an important private bank, they emphasized that The measure implies a strong credit increasetherefore, a consequent and expected negative impact on the activitythat it was already stagnant since February and, at the same time, a lower transfer of the jump in the dollar to inflation.
An operator contributed the last estimate of Eco Gowhose survey of retail prices of the second week of August showed a Weekly food variation of 0.6% and The August 2% projectiondata that They go in line with the stabilization of the dollar that contributed to limit the “Pass-Through”although too The greatest commercial opening and the fall in demand compress margins.
A toast with gold and silver
A meeting out of the agenda near the residence of Olivos: A group of economists and financiers celebrated July’s data as an Olympic goalespecially from the Core (1.5% monthly, the lowest since January 2018). But they recognized have the focus on interest rates in pesos and liquidity conditions.
The most orthodox anti-k were braming People, market and media did not understand anything: Without monetary validation, it is impossible for inflation to revive. Obvious, All fans of the money quantitative theory.
For them, there is some confusion regarding inflationary expectations by people. Commune with the idea that The inflation that runs below 2% will go to 0% next year. They trust the “Toto” Team.
One of the diners threw a Deutsche Bank study which analyzed average inflation rates in 152 countries since 1971 and found that No economy, developed or not, has successfully maintained a long -term inflation rate. The closest was Switzerland, with an average of 2.2%followed by Germany and Japan. It is also explained why The Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franco are considered confused safe refuge coins: It takes 32 years in depreciating a -50%.
What they saw when comparing with the Gold and Silver Performance the thing is All coins quickly lose their value in terms of purchasing powerexcept the gold and silver coins, which Not only have they protected the purchasing power, but they have multiplied it. It is worth noting that The study bearer manages a global metal ETF.
Source: Ambito
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