With the market aware of the “mother of all battles” in the district legislative of the province of Buenos Aires and the legislative at the national level of the end of October, analysts point out which sectors could lead a bullish rally if an official triumph is consolidated.
While the attention of the most investors are concentrated in the short term, With the focus on the evolution of the rates and the dollar, Some already look beyond and analyze possible plays for the “Electoral Trade”contemplating not only the September scenario but also that of October.
The consensus in the market is that the ruling party It will be imposed in the October elections, While in September, which is “the mother of all battles” in the province of Buenos Aires, doubts persist. For those who maintain an optimistic vision and bet that the government will not only consolidate, but will expand its flow of votes, Certain actions that today look “cheap” in comparative terms could be especially benefited in case of an official triumph.
So far this year, The MERVAL S&P index in dollars accumulates a decrease close to 21%, while in pesos yields 13.6%. Within the leading panel, there are papers with pronounced falls: Comercial del Plata (Come) collapse about 75%, Ternium (Txar) goes back 30%, Metrogas (Metr) yields 24%and Edenor (EDN) 23%. In this context, what actions look closely at experts, in this note.
“For the rally, it is best to grab a bit what has more beta or what fasted more from the last maximum, which are the banks. Grupo Supervielle stands out in that, where it is expected that for the 4T there will be a more open deployment of the portfolio of loans. Today from the operation, banks are not the best to play, but from the technical one it should be the place by nature to play the pre and post electoral rally, “said Matías Cattaruzzi, Mr. Equity Analyst of Adcap.
In turn, he added: “The rally should be played in banks, especially because of the dynamics of debt ratios on GDP. There is a lot of place to grow.” On the side of the utilities, finally, He points out that Transener and Transportadora Gas del Norte (TGN) are more defensive utilities With income regulated for the next five years and, in that sense, they are “cheap”.
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From the IEB group side, they give priority to Actions with greater liquidity and betas related to the highest S&P. That is why they continue with a portfolio raising the banking sector and that of Oil & Gas with 35% for each. “Banks today are quoting in considerably lower multiples than the maximums achieved at the beginning of the year. The increase in the credits estimated, although it has been very significant, it has not yet become an explosion. In this way, the ROE has not been enough to sustain these value 1.5x “, agreed from IEB.
“Our vision is that before a victory of the ruling party, the expectations of an explosion of the credit in 2026 are regenerated, enabling multiples in values similar to those at the beginning of this year,” they added.
Tomás Bourel, an analyst at Fortress Capital, agreed with the analysis of Cattaruzzi and the IEB group, and highlighted BBVA (BBAR) As his preference “for his leadership in the market Share of loans to the private sector, which positions it to lead the expansion of credit in a recovery scenario.”
The specialist also pointed out that the regulated sector could be one of the great protagonists, with ECOGAS as the best positioned thanks to its high margins, attractive valuation (P/B 1.8X and EV/EBITDA 5.2X) and Potential to rise in a favorable market context.
Finally, he mentioned Autopistas del Sol (Auso) As an outstanding opportunity: without financial debt, a current contract until 2030 and a demand in the ICADI for US $ 457 million – self -experience to 2.5 times its capitalization – whose ruling could be known shortly. With the action 42% below its maximum of January, Bourel considers that the balance Risk-return is especially attractive.
Source: Ambito
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