Rates for clouds: the opportunities in pesos that experts highlight, with yields of up to 66% per year

The last tender of the Treasury deepened the tension the rate market in pesos: He validated record yields, but failed to absorb all surplus liquidity. The result forced the government to launch a Emergency placement for Monday, while The Central Bank (BCRA) raised the lace to drain pesos and contain the exchange pressure.

Specifically, The Treasury last Wednesday $ 9.15 billion in financial instruments After receiving offers for $ 9.98 billion. However, the “rollover” was long below 100% and covered only 61% of the maturities. In addition, the market chose to extend “Duration” and avoided validating the emission stops set for the two shortest lecaps ($ 3 and $ 4 billion, expiring on September 12 and 30, respectively).

“These letters represented only 35.8% of the awarded, well below the range observed in the three previous tenders, when the instruments at a fixed rate less than 60 days concentrated between 63.8% and 89% of the placement,” they mentioned from Personal Investment Portfolio (PPI).

How was the fixed income market and what opportunities are there

According to the specialists, the treasure validated a certain prize in the rates with respect to the closure of the secondary and Tuesday, while He left the longest tamar letter (expiration 02/13/26), the lyrics of Linked at 12/15/25 (TZVD5) and the bancer on 10/30/25 (Tzxo5).

“In this line, the yields to which the instruments at a fixed rate were tendered were: S12S5 to 4.48% TEM, S30s5 to 4.2% TEM, S31O5 to 3.9% TEM, S11N5 to 3.94% TEM, S16E6 to 3.6% TEM and S13F6 to 3.68% TEM, implying an award of between 13 and 76 basic points over the secondary points of yesterday and Between 10 and 65 points on the closing of Tuesday.

Consequently, the operators adjusted the yields of the titles that already quote in the secondary market. At the end of Thursday, LECAPS were negotiated with an internal return rate (IRR) between 59% and 66%approximately.

The S29G5 Expired in August it was the most profitable, with a 65.64% of IRR, while the S28N5, that expires in November concluded with a 58.70% IRR. In the middle, the other titles were located with an average of 62% rate.

In comparison, according to the survey of market expectations (REM) of the Central Bank, Inflation for the next 12 months would be 21.1%so the actual profit of assets in fixed rate pesos would exceed 36%. For this reason, in the tender of the Treasury there was no demand for bonce linked to the consumer price index (CPI).

Thinking about next year, the calculations are finer. “Projecting to June 2026, a tamar less than 2.3% monthly and inflation less than 1.6% would favor the LECAP/BONCAP curve, in this case to the T30J6. If any of those variables are located above, the key would be in the real rate: An average tamar 8.5% above inflation would benefit dual bonds (TTJ26), while a minor would be better positioned to the CER (Tzx26) “ They held from GMA capital.

Anyway, the truth is that it is difficult to make decisions in pesos a year. Not so much for inflation or exchange rate expectations, as happened in recent years. “The problem today goes through the volatility that the Lefis arrived with the end and with the beginning of the endogenous rate scheme. At the moment, the market is confident that the status quo will be sustained, at least to the elections. Beyond that horizon, the party probably is another,” They warned from GMA.

Tender in surprise pesos

Within this framework, almost $ 6 billion left over that did not turn to financial instruments in the last tender, the Treasury announced a surprise broadcast for next Monday.

“The surplus weights of today’s tender will be immediately absorbed. In this case, they will be mostly absorbed via the increase in paid lace with new public titles to be subscribed next Monday (day of the liquidation of today’s tender), through a new tender of the treasure,” he revealed Federico Furiasedirector of the BCRA.

As he pointed out Walter Moralespresident and strategist of Wise Capital, The fixed term rate shot at 44% for the rise of laceFactor that reduces weights in the street and forces to pay more rate, even though the monthly inflation has a marked bearish trend since June last year.

“This gives the guideline that the fees for credits will continue very high in real terms. We hope that the SuperSa will continue, but we have to take note that the government began to occupy, making available to the banks financing 60 days to Tamar, more spred. In this way, the daily money market is decompressed, with which there should be a lower pressure on the dollar,” he said.

Then, he added that, on the side of the investments, There is a lot of armed trace between hiocation and short lecapsmaking these fall except the closest expiration. “The inverted curve is not going to change while the rates to place weights at one day remain at levels of 48% effective annual (40% of TNA). Within this context, better than to channel is to buy the LECAP that expires at the end of the month and has a tir of 63.4%,” he concluded.