The US economic situation characterized by moderate inflation affects stock markets.
The threat of stagflation (low growth with high inflation) in USA It begins to gain ground in the projections. According to a survey of Bank of America Global Research Made at the beginning of August, about 70% of respondents expect this scenario in the next 12 months, which could Impact on the financial market around the world.
The concern feeds on recent signals: A weakened labor market, a rebound in underlying inflation and an unexpected increase in producer prices. Despite this, both the bags and the global bonds remain calm, with share rates close to historical maximums. “The stagflation is in the mind of the market, but not in prices”he warned Marie-Anne AllierCarmignac manager.
Impact of high inflation and low fixed income
The main immediate risk of high inflation and low growth is in bonds. Persistent inflation erodes the real value of interest payments, which worries pension funds and insurers with strong exhibition for fixed income. “Another weak employment report would significantly increase staining concerns”he said Paul Eitelmanby Russell Investments.
Besides, The correlation between G7 bond markets limits protection outside the US. A liquidation in the long section of the US curve would impact Europe and the United Kingdom. This year, while two -year yields retreated, the 30 -year -old shows, reflection of inflation tension.
Wall Street Markets
Reuters
Wall Street, between doubts and resilience
In variable income, the risk also extends beyond the US. Since 1990, American manufacturing contraction periods with high inflation implied 15% average falls in global actions, according to Michael Metcalfe of State Street.
However, The indices still advance, supported by the strength of large technological ones, although the most cyclical sectors look vulnerable. Caroline Shaw, by Fidelity International, said her team maintains coverage at Russell 2000 through sale options.
Exchange risk and alternative shelters
He dollar It appears as another weak front. “Standing has two risks: devaluation due to low growth and loss of purchasing power due to inflation”he explained Nabil Milaliby Edmond de Rothschild. Meanwhile, the euro already accumulates an increase of more than 12% against the green ticket in 2025, accompanied by the appreciation of the pound and the YEN.
In this context, Refugio assets gain prominence. He gold It remains the most recurring choice, together with Bonds Indexed to inflation and specialized derivatives such as inflation SWAPS. For investors, the key will be navigate between mixed signals: A market that appears solidity on the surface, but that hides growing risks of staining in its nucleus.
Source: Ambito
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