The Risk Qualifier ratified the United States AA+’solvency note and maintained the stable perspective, considering that the highest tariff income could partially compensate for the impact of tax reform, although it warned of the growing public debt and political polarization.
The S&P Global Ratings Agency He confirmed the solvency rating ‘AA+’ for the long -term sovereign debt of the United States and maintained the stable perspective. The decision is based on the fact that the highest tariff income could mitigateat least in part, the negative effects of the recent fiscal reform that increased the public deficit.
According to the qualifier, the fiscal outcome will depend How new budgetary measures are implemented and of its interaction with additional income from rates, as well as its impact on growth and investment.
S&P projects that the government deficit will average 6% of GDP between 2025 and 2028below the estimated 7.5% by 2024 and 9.8% registered on average between 2020 and 2023. However, the net debt of the federal government would continue to increase: 94% of GDP would increase in 2024 to more than 100% in 2028, approaching the 106% historical record reached during World War II.
Trump USA Tariffs
For S&P Global USA will avoid recession
As for the economy, The agency anticipates that the United States will avoid recessionalthough it will grow at a more moderate rate: 1.7% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026.
Finally, S&P highlighted the institutional strength and credibility of the Federal Reserve, which gives the country an important margin to manage monetary policy. “We hope that Fed will achieve the double challenge of controlling inflation and managing the vulnerabilities of financial markets ”the report said.
“That said, our US institutional evaluation is lower than that of some peer countries,” says the agency, which incorporates into its evaluation a slightly higher degree of polarization.
Also, in your analysis Highlights the flexibility of American economic policywhich includes a proactive and credible monetary policy, as well as the unique position of the country as a issuer of the world’s main reserve currency.
In this sense, S&P global considers that the institutional solidity and credibility of the Federal Reserve (FED) They give the United States considerable flexibility in their monetary policy and emphasizes that the Central Bank has repeatedly contributed to stabilize world financial markets.
“We hope that the Fed will exceed the challenges of reducing internal inflation and addressing the vulnerabilities of financial markets,” concludes the agency, warning that US sovereign qualifications could be pressured if political events affect the strength of US institutions, the effectiveness of long -term policies or the independence of the Fed, What could threaten the position of the dollar as the main world reserve currency, a key credit strength.
Source: Ambito
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